The Prediction Markets

B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner

Closes
Dec 31, 2027, in 14 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
4 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Lee Fairclough 48%

Next is Navdeep Bains at 35%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lee Fairclough
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lee Fairclough
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Navdeep Bains
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Navdeep Bains
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Aaron Gunn
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aaron Gunn
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Caroline Elliott
13.5%
Polymarket 13.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Caroline Elliott
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Claire Rattée
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Claire Rattée
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iain Black
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 11.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $877 (8.77x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iain Black
Last price
8.4%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
11.4¢
Sell Yes
5.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$877 (8.77x)
Volume
$605
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephanie Bowman
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stephanie Bowman
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$399
Trade this on Kalshi
Stockwell Day
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stockwell Day
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dylan Marando
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dylan Marando
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$144
Trade this on Kalshi
Chip Wilson
5.8%
Polymarket 5.8%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,316 (13.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chip Wilson
Last price
5.8%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.6¢
Sell Yes
3.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,316 (13.2x)
Volume
$565
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 3 more outcomes
Sheldon Clare
4.1%
Polymarket 4.1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sheldon Clare
Last price
4.1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$477
Trade this on Polymarket
Yuri Fulmer
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yuri Fulmer
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$762
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Lombardi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 4 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Eric Lombardi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 4 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Ontario Liberal Party — Chief Returning Officer

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lee Fairclough
  • Navdeep Bains
  • Aaron Gunn

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Lee Fairclough for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "B.C. Conservative Party Leadership Election Winner". Lee Fairclough leads at 48%. Next is Navdeep Bains at 35%. $13K has traded across 13 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2027.

A leadership election for the Conservative Party of British Columbia is expected following the resignation of Kerry-Lynne Findlay as party leader on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Conservative Party of British Columbia as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by November 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Conservative Party of British Columbia.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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