The Prediction Markets

Benue, Nigeria Governor Election Winner

Closes
Feb 7, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Alia Hyacinth Iormem 78.6%

Next is Michael Aondoakaa at 10.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Alia Hyacinth Iormem 78.6%Michael Aondoakaa 10.5%Hembe Herman Iorwase C. 7%Titus Tamango Belamo 2.1%Ochigbo Mathew Sunday 0.9%Sebastine Hon 0.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Alia Hyacinth Iormem
78.6%
Polymarket 60.5%(78.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alia Hyacinth Iormem
Last price
60.5%
Fair, margin removed
78.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Aondoakaa
10.5%
Polymarket 8.1%(10.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Aondoakaa
Last price
8.1%
Fair, margin removed
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Hembe Herman Iorwase C.
7%
Polymarket 5.4%(7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,235 (12.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hembe Herman Iorwase C.
Last price
5.4%
Fair, margin removed
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.1¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,235 (12.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Titus Tamango Belamo
2.1%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Titus Tamango Belamo
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$527
Trade this on Polymarket
Ochigbo Mathew Sunday
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ochigbo Mathew Sunday
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$390
Trade this on Polymarket
Sebastine Hon
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sebastine Hon
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$347
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Alia Hyacinth Iormem
  • Michael Aondoakaa
  • Hembe Herman Iorwase C.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Benue, Nigeria Governor Election Winner". Alia Hyacinth Iormem leads at 78.6%. Next is Michael Aondoakaa at 10.5%. $17K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 7, 2027.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Benue State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Benue State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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