The Prediction Markets

Best Chinese AI Company end of November?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
4 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Xiaomi 25.3%

Next is Alibaba at 23.7%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Xiaomi 25.3%Alibaba 23.7%Moonshot 15.4%Z.ai 14.2%ByteDance 6.6%6 others 14.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 4 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Xiaomi
25.3%
Polymarket 30.4%(25.3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
30.4%
Fair, margin removed
25.3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
25.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alibaba
23.7%
Polymarket 28.5%(23.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
28.5%
Fair, margin removed
23.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Moonshot
15.4%
Polymarket 18.5%(15.4% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
18.5%
Fair, margin removed
15.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Z.ai
14.2%
Polymarket 17%(14.2% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
14.2%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
ByteDance
6.6%
Polymarket 8%(6.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
6.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$523
Trade this on Polymarket
Meituan
3.8%
Polymarket 4.5%(3.7% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,282 (12.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
4.5%
Fair, margin removed
3.7%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.8¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,282 (12.8x)
Volume
$391
Trade this on Polymarket
Tencent
3.6%
Polymarket 4.4%(3.6% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
4.4%
Fair, margin removed
3.6%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Polymarket
Baidu
3%
Polymarket 3.6%(3% fair)polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 6.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,563 (15.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
3.6%
Fair, margin removed
3%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
6.4¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,563 (15.6x)
Volume
$480
Trade this on Polymarket
DeepSeek
2.1%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Polymarket
MiniMax
2%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 2.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,448 (34.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Volume
$492
Trade this on Polymarket
StepFun
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 4 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
StepFun
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 4 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: arena.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Xiaomi
  • Alibaba
  • Moonshot

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Best Chinese AI Company end of November?". Xiaomi leads at 25.3%. Next is Alibaba at 23.7%. $16K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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