The Prediction Markets

Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$310K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Xiaomi 71%

Next is Moonshot at 11.3%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Xiaomi 71%Moonshot 11.3%Alibaba 7.1%Z.ai 2.8%DeepSeek 2.3%6 others 5.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Xiaomi
71%
Polymarket 69.9%(68.3% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 89%(43.6% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 64%(43.6% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
69.9%
Fair, margin removed
68.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
89%
Fair, margin removed
43.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
64%
Fair, margin removed
43.6%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Moonshot
11.3%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3%(1.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 4%(1.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$46K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Alibaba
7.1%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 9%(4.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 8%(4.4% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$63K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
9%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$948
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
8%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$388
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Z.ai
2.8%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%(1% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 4%(1% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
4%
Fair, margin removed
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

DeepSeek
2.3%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%(1% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3.5%(1% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
3.5%
Fair, margin removed
1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

MiniMax
2%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 3%(1.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2.5%(1.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
3%
Fair, margin removed
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
2.5%
Fair, margin removed
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Baidu
1.2%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%(0.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 2%(0.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
2%
Fair, margin removed
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$540
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Tencent
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%(0.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1.5%(0.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tencent
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tencent
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Tencent
Last price
1.5%
Fair, margin removed
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

ByteDance
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%(0.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%(0.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Meituan
0.6%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1%(0.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoKalshi 1.5%(0.5% fair)polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Meituan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Meituan
Last price
1%
Fair, margin removed
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Meituan
Last price
1.5%
Fair, margin removed
0.5%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Prices on these venues are 3 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

StepFun
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 3 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
StepFun
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 3 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 3 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: arena.ai
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Xiaomi
  • Moonshot
  • Alibaba

Live prices for Xiaomi

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Best Chinese AI Company end of October?". Xiaomi leads at 71%. Next is Moonshot at 11.3%. $310K has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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