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What the markets expect
Google 76%
Next is Anthropic at 12%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Google76%76%25¢ bid, 77¢ askpolled, 59s ago77¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $130 (1.30x)Google76%Kalshi 76%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Google
76%
76%
25¢ bid, 77¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
77¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Google
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Last price
- 76%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 77¢
- Sell Yes
- 25¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $130 (1.30x)
- Volume
- $415
Anthropic12%12%12¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 59s ago19¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $526 (5.26x)Anthropic12%Kalshi 12%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Anthropic
12%
12%
12¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
19¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Anthropic
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anthropic
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $172
OpenAI9%9%9¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 59s ago18¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $556 (5.56x)OpenAI9%Kalshi 9%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
OpenAI
9%
9%
9¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
18¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
OpenAI
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- OpenAI
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $8
Essential AI7%7%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 59s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Essential AI7%Kalshi 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Essential AI
7%
7%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Essential AI
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Essential AI
- Last price
- 7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $1K
Moonshot4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 59s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Moonshot4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Moonshot
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Moonshot
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Moonshot
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Tencent4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 59s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Tencent4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Tencent
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Tencent
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Tencent
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
xAI4%4%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 59s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)xAI4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
xAI
4%
4%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
xAI
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- xAI
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $54
Xiaomi4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 59s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Xiaomi4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Xiaomi
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Xiaomi
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Xiaomi
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Z AI4%4%— bid, 8¢ askpolled, 59s ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Z AI4%Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Z AI
4%
4%
— bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Z AI
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Z AI
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
DeepSeek3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 59s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)DeepSeek3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
DeepSeek
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
DeepSeek
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- DeepSeek
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Show 24 more outcomesHide 24 outcomes
MiniMax3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 59s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)MiniMax3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
MiniMax
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
MiniMax
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- MiniMax
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Mistral3.5%3.5%— bid, 7¢ askpolled, 59s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Mistral3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Mistral
3.5%
3.5%
— bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Mistral
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mistral
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
Alibaba3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 59s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Alibaba3%Kalshi 3%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alibaba
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Alibaba
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alibaba
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
NVIDIA3%3%— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 59s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)NVIDIA3%Kalshi 3%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
NVIDIA
3%
3%
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
NVIDIA
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- NVIDIA
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
ByteDance2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 59s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)ByteDance2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
ByteDance
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
ByteDance
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- ByteDance
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Huawei2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 59s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Huawei2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Huawei
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Huawei
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Huawei
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Microsoft2.5%2.5%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 59s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Microsoft2.5%Kalshi 2.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Microsoft
2.5%
2.5%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Microsoft
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Microsoft
- Last price
- 2.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Arcee AI2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Arcee AI2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Arcee AI
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Arcee AI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Arcee AI
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Baidu2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Baidu2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Baidu
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Baidu
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Baidu
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
China Mobile2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)China Mobile2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
China Mobile
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
China Mobile
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- China Mobile
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Cohere2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Cohere2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cohere
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cohere
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cohere
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Inception2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Inception2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Inception
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Inception
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Inception
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
InclusionAI2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)InclusionAI2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
InclusionAI
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
InclusionAI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- InclusionAI
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Institute of Foundation Models2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Institute of Foundation Models2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Institute of Foundation Models
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Institute of Foundation Models
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Institute of Foundation Models
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
LG AI Research2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)LG AI Research2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
LG AI Research
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
LG AI Research
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- LG AI Research
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
LongCat2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)LongCat2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
LongCat
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
LongCat
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- LongCat
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Prime Intellect2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Prime Intellect2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Prime Intellect
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Prime Intellect
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Prime Intellect
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Reflection AI2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Reflection AI2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Reflection AI
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Reflection AI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Reflection AI
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Safe Superintelligence2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Safe Superintelligence2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Safe Superintelligence
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Safe Superintelligence
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Safe Superintelligence
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
StepFun2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)StepFun2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
StepFun
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
StepFun
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- StepFun
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Thinking Machines2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Thinking Machines2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Thinking Machines
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Thinking Machines
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Thinking Machines
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Upstage2%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 59s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Upstage2%Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Upstage
2%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Upstage
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Upstage
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Amazon1%1%1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 59s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Amazon1%Kalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Amazon
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Amazon
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Amazon
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Meta1%1%1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 59s ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Meta1%Kalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Meta
1%
1%
1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 59s ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Meta
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Meta
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $3
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Artificial Analysis, Epoch AI, LiveBench
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Anthropic
- OpenAI
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Best LLM at the end of the decade?". Google leads at 76%. Next is Anthropic at 12%. $3K has traded across 34 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2029.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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