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What the markets expect
Illinois 17.4%
Next is Michigan St. at 12.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Illinois17.4%24%17.5% fair18¢ bid, 24¢ askpolled, 1 min ago24¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $417 (4.17x)Illinois17.4%Kalshi 24%(17.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Illinois
17.4%
24%
17.5% fair
18¢ bid, 24¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
24¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Illinois
17.4%
Kalshi 24%(17.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Illinois
- Last price
- 24%
- Fair, margin removed
- 17.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $148
Michigan St.12.4%17%12.4% fair8¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 1 min ago17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Michigan St.12.4%Kalshi 17%(12.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Michigan St.
12.4%
17%
12.4% fair
8¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Michigan St.
12.4%
Kalshi 17%(12.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan St.
- Last price
- 17%
- Fair, margin removed
- 12.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $46
Michigan8%11%8% fair5¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Michigan8%Kalshi 11%(8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Michigan
8%
11%
8% fair
5¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Michigan
8%
Kalshi 11%(8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Michigan
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $230
Nebraska8%11%8% fair5¢ bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min ago11¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $909 (9.09x)Nebraska8%Kalshi 11%(8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Nebraska
8%
11%
8% fair
5¢ bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
11¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Nebraska
8%
Kalshi 11%(8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nebraska
- Last price
- 11%
- Fair, margin removed
- 8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $186
Northwestern7.3%10%7.3% fair— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Northwestern7.3%Kalshi 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Northwestern
7.3%
10%
7.3% fair
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Northwestern
7.3%
Kalshi 10%(7.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Northwestern
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $28
UCLA5.8%8%5.8% fair4¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)UCLA5.8%Kalshi 8%(5.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
UCLA
5.8%
8%
5.8% fair
4¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
UCLA
5.8%
Kalshi 8%(5.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- UCLA
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $62
Wisconsin5.8%8%5.8% fair1¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Wisconsin5.8%Kalshi 8%(5.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Wisconsin
5.8%
8%
5.8% fair
1¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Wisconsin
5.8%
Kalshi 8%(5.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wisconsin
- Last price
- 8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $1
Ohio St.4.7%6.5%4.7% fair3¢ bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Ohio St.4.7%Kalshi 6.5%(4.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Ohio St.
4.7%
6.5%
4.7% fair
3¢ bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Ohio St.
4.7%
Kalshi 6.5%(4.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ohio St.
- Last price
- 6.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Indiana4.4%6%4.4% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Indiana4.4%Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Indiana
4.4%
6%
4.4% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Indiana
4.4%
Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Indiana
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $42
Maryland4.4%6%4.4% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Maryland4.4%Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Maryland
4.4%
6%
4.4% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Maryland
4.4%
Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Maryland
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $13
Show 8 more outcomesHide 8 outcomes
Oregon4.4%6%4.4% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Oregon4.4%Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Oregon
4.4%
6%
4.4% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Oregon
4.4%
Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Oregon
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $264
Purdue4.4%6%4.4% fair1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Purdue4.4%Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Purdue
4.4%
6%
4.4% fair
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Purdue
4.4%
Kalshi 6%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Purdue
- Last price
- 6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 4.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $493
Minnesota3.6%5%3.6% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Minnesota3.6%Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Minnesota
3.6%
5%
3.6% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Minnesota
3.6%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Minnesota
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $10
USC3.6%5%3.6% fair1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)USC3.6%Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
USC
3.6%
5%
3.6% fair
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
USC
3.6%
Kalshi 5%(3.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- USC
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $34
Iowa2.2%3%2.2% fair1¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Iowa2.2%Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Iowa
2.2%
3%
2.2% fair
1¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Iowa
2.2%
Kalshi 3%(2.2% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Iowa
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Rutgers1.8%2.5%1.8% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Rutgers1.8%Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rutgers
1.8%
2.5%
1.8% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Rutgers
1.8%
Kalshi 2.5%(1.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rutgers
- Last price
- 2.5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
Washington1.4%2%1.5% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Washington1.4%Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Washington
1.4%
2%
1.5% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Washington
1.4%
Kalshi 2%(1.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Washington
- Last price
- 2%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Penn St.0.4%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Penn St.0.4%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Penn St.
0.4%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Penn St.
0.4%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Penn St.
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN, Fox Sports
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Illinois
- Michigan St.
- Michigan
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Big Ten Men's Conference Tournament Champion". Illinois leads at 17.4%. Next is Michigan St. at 12.4%. $2K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 28, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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