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What the markets expect
Jayden Maiava 26.9%
Next is Josh Hoover at 25.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Jayden Maiava26.9%35%26.9% fair20¢ bid, 39¢ askpolled, 34s ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Jayden Maiava26.9%Kalshi 35%(26.9% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Jayden Maiava
26.9%
35%
26.9% fair
20¢ bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Jayden Maiava
26.9%
Kalshi 35%(26.9% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jayden Maiava
- Last price
- 35%
- Fair, margin removed
- 26.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
Josh Hoover25.4%33%25.4% fair31¢ bid, 49¢ askpolled, 34s ago49¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $204 (2.04x)Josh Hoover25.4%Kalshi 33%(25.4% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Josh Hoover
25.4%
33%
25.4% fair
31¢ bid, 49¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
49¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Josh Hoover
25.4%
Kalshi 33%(25.4% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Josh Hoover
- Last price
- 33%
- Fair, margin removed
- 25.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 49¢
- Sell Yes
- 31¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $204 (2.04x)
- Volume
- $2K
Julian Sayin7.7%10%7.7% fair— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 34s ago10¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)Julian Sayin7.7%Kalshi 10%(7.7% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Julian Sayin
7.7%
10%
7.7% fair
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
10¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Julian Sayin
7.7%
Kalshi 10%(7.7% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Julian Sayin
- Last price
- 10%
- Fair, margin removed
- 7.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Anthony Colandrea5.4%7%5.4% fair2¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 34s ago7¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)Anthony Colandrea5.4%Kalshi 7%(5.4% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Anthony Colandrea
5.4%
7%
5.4% fair
2¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
7¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Anthony Colandrea
5.4%
Kalshi 7%(5.4% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Anthony Colandrea
- Last price
- 7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 5.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $928
Malik Washington3.9%5%3.8% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 34s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Malik Washington3.9%Kalshi 5%(3.8% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Malik Washington
3.9%
5%
3.8% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Malik Washington
3.9%
Kalshi 5%(3.8% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Malik Washington
- Last price
- 5%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $94
Bryce Underwood3.1%4%3.1% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Bryce Underwood3.1%Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Bryce Underwood
3.1%
4%
3.1% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Bryce Underwood
3.1%
Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Bryce Underwood
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $161
Drake Lindsey3.1%4%3.1% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Drake Lindsey3.1%Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Drake Lindsey
3.1%
4%
3.1% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Drake Lindsey
3.1%
Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Drake Lindsey
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $188
Dylan Raiola3.1%4%3.1% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Dylan Raiola3.1%Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Dylan Raiola
3.1%
4%
3.1% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Dylan Raiola
3.1%
Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dylan Raiola
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $251
Katin Houser3.1%4%3.1% fair— bid, 5¢ askpolled, 34s ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Katin Houser3.1%Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Katin Houser
3.1%
4%
3.1% fair
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Katin Houser
3.1%
Kalshi 4%(3.1% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Katin Houser
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $87
Dante Moore2.3%3%2.3% fair— bid, 48¢ askpolled, 34s ago48¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $208 (2.08x)Dante Moore2.3%Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Dante Moore
2.3%
3%
2.3% fair
— bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
48¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Dante Moore
2.3%
Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dante Moore
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $1K
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Rocco Becht2.3%3%2.3% fair— bid, 6¢ askpolled, 34s ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Rocco Becht2.3%Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Rocco Becht
2.3%
3%
2.3% fair
— bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Rocco Becht
2.3%
Kalshi 3%(2.3% fair)polled, 34s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Rocco Becht
- Last price
- 3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 2.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $1K
Alessio Milivojevic1.6%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Alessio Milivojevic1.6%Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Alessio Milivojevic
1.6%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Alessio Milivojevic
1.6%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Alessio Milivojevic
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Cardell Williams1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Cardell Williams1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cardell Williams
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Cardell Williams
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Cardell Williams
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Colton Joseph1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Colton Joseph1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Colton Joseph
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Colton Joseph
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Colton Joseph
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Demond Williams Jr.1.5%2%— bid, 39¢ askpolled, 34s ago39¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $256 (2.56x)Demond Williams Jr.1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Demond Williams Jr.
1.5%
2%
— bid, 39¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
39¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Demond Williams Jr.
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Demond Williams Jr.
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 39¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $256 (2.56x)
- Volume
- $200
Dylan Lonergan1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Dylan Lonergan1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Dylan Lonergan
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Dylan Lonergan
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dylan Lonergan
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Hank Brown1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Hank Brown1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Hank Brown
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Hank Brown
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Hank Brown
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Nico Iamaleava1.5%2%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 34s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Nico Iamaleava1.5%Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Nico Iamaleava
1.5%
2%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Nico Iamaleava
1.5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nico Iamaleava
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
Aidan Chiles0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 34s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Aidan Chiles0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Aidan Chiles
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Aidan Chiles
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Aidan Chiles
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $200
Ryan Browne0.8%1%— bid, 97¢ askpolled, 34s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Ryan Browne0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Ryan Browne
0.8%
1%
— bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 34s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Ryan Browne
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 34s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ryan Browne
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $729
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Kalshi using information originating from the NCAA, ESPN
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Jayden Maiava
- Josh Hoover
- Julian Sayin
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Big Ten: Passing Touchdowns Leader". Jayden Maiava leads at 26.9%. Next is Josh Hoover at 25.4%. $9K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 7, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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