The Prediction Markets

Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of November 7

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$2K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo 89.8%

Next is The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore at 3.4%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo 89.8%The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore 3.4%LISA - Press Play 2.9%Zach Bryan - Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs 1.6%Drake - HABIBTI (FOMO) 1.4%Dandelion - Ella Langley 0.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo
89.8%
Polymarket 92.5%(89.8% fair)polled, 39s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
92.5%
Fair, margin removed
89.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore
3.4%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
LISA - Press Play
2.9%
Polymarket 3%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
LISA - Press Play
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$105
Trade this on Polymarket
Zach Bryan - Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs
1.6%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 3.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,226 (32.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zach Bryan - Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Drake - HABIBTI (FOMO)
1.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake - HABIBTI (FOMO)
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket
Dandelion - Ella Langley
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dandelion - Ella Langley
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo
  • The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore
  • LISA - Press Play

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of November 7". You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo leads at 89.8%. Next is The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore at 3.4%. $2K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of November 7, 2026”. Albums will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more albums are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the albums' listed titles. This market will resolve to the album that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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