The Prediction Markets

Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 31

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$27K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love 95.7%

Next is NO ME ARREPIENTO DE SENTIR TANTO at 50%. The venues differ most on DANDELION (Polymarket 0.2%, Kalshi 22%), a 22-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
95.7%
Polymarket 96%polled, 46s agoKalshi 95%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99.8¢
Sell Yes
92.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$853
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 92.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 98¢.

NO ME ARREPIENTO DE SENTIR TANTO
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 46s ago
Kalshi
Contract
NO ME ARREPIENTO DE SENTIR TANTO
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
So Close To What
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 46s ago
Kalshi
Contract
So Close To What
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Kalshi
DANDELION
11.9%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 22%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dandelion - Ella Langley
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$912
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DANDELION
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Dopamine Chamber
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dopamine Chamber
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
HYPERDRIVE
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
HYPERDRIVE
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
I'm The Problem
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
I'm The Problem
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
ICEMAN
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
ICEMAN
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$111
Trade this on Kalshi
Last Laugh [archive tape]
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Last Laugh [archive tape]
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Number Ones
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Number Ones
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 16 more outcomes
One Thing At A Time
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
One Thing At A Time
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
PRIMA
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
PRIMA
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Rubber Soul
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rubber Soul
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
SOS
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
SOS
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Take Care
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Take Care
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
The Art of Loving
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Art of Loving
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
The Great Divide
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$195
Trade this on Kalshi
The Life of a Showgirl
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Thriller
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Thriller
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
Visitor
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Visitor
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$65
Trade this on Kalshi
HABIBTI
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
HABIBTI
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
Stick Season
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stick Season
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$784
Trade this on Kalshi
THE DIVINE FEMININE
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
THE DIVINE FEMININE
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Zach Bryan - Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zach Bryan - Young Manhood & Other Donatable Organs
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Drake - HABIBTI (FOMO)
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake - HABIBTI (FOMO)
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$862
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.
  • Trading closes Oct 28, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
  • NO ME ARREPIENTO DE SENTIR TANTO
  • So Close To What

Live prices for you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Billboard 200 #1 Album Week of October 31". you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love leads at 95.7%. Next is NO ME ARREPIENTO DE SENTIR TANTO at 50%. $27K has traded across 26 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 28, 2026.

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then dated “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 album on the Billboard 200 chart dated “Week of October 31, 2026”. Albums will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more albums are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the albums' listed titles. This market will resolve to the album that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the Billboard 200 chart for the specified week, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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