The Prediction Markets

Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of April 11

Closed
Apr 6, 2026
Traded
$24K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Apr 6, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 200 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
99.6%
Polymarket 100%polled, 4801 h ago
Polymarket
Contract
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
Last price
100%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
99.9¢
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Golden - HUNTR/X
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4801 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Golden - HUNTR/X
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$395
Trade this on Polymarket
I Just Might - Bruno Mars
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4801 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
I Just Might - Bruno Mars
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$292
Trade this on Polymarket
Man I Need - Olivia Dean
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4801 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Man I Need - Olivia Dean
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Ordinary - Alex Warren
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4801 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ordinary - Alex Warren
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$374
Trade this on Polymarket
So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4801 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
So Easy (To Fall In Love) - Olivia Dean
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$328
Trade this on Polymarket
Stateside - PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4801 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stateside - PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$349
Trade this on Polymarket
SWIM - BTS
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4801 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
SWIM - BTS
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 4801 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Fate of Ophelia - Taylor Swift
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 200 d ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$330
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
  • Golden - HUNTR/X
  • I Just Might - Bruno Mars

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Billboard Hot 100 #1 Song Week of April 11". Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley last traded at 99.6%. Next is Golden - HUNTR/X at 0.1%. $24K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Apr 6, 2026.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of April 11, 2026”. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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