The Prediction Markets

Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of November 14

Closes
Nov 11, 2026, in 6 days
Traded
$17K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
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What the markets expect

HOUSEWIFE 92.5%

Next is Dracula at 10%. The venues differ most on HOUSEWIFE (Polymarket 97%, Kalshi 79%), a 18-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
HOUSEWIFE
92.5%
Polymarket 97%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 79%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
Housewife - Tate McRae
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
HOUSEWIFE
Last price
79%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dracula
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dracula
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$231
Trade this on Kalshi
Thriller
2.4%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Thriller - Michael Jackson
Last price
2.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$447
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Thriller
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$49
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Patient Zero
2.2%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Patient Zero - Taylor Swift
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Patient Zero
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$932
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Choosin' Texas
2.1%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$128
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Choosin' Texas
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

expectations
1.6%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Expectations - Olivia Rodrigo & Chappell Roan
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
expectations
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Babydoll
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Babydoll
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
BbY WOW
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BbY WOW
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
BE HER
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BE HER
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Been By Now
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Been By Now
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
Boston
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Boston
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Disturbia
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Disturbia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Earrings
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Earrings
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Ghostbusters
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ghostbusters
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
hate that i made you love me
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
hate that i made you love me
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
I Just Might
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
I Just Might
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
JADED
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
JADED
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
LOVING LIFE AGAIN
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
LOVING LIFE AGAIN
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$69
Trade this on Kalshi
Midnight Sun
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Midnight Sun
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$153
Trade this on Kalshi
Monster Mash
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Monster Mash
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Nicole Kidman
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nicole Kidman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Psycho Killer
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Psycho Killer
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Risk It All
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Risk It All
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Kalshi
Somebody's Watching Me
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Somebody's Watching Me
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Spooky, Scary Skeletons
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Spooky, Scary Skeletons
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
stupid song
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
stupid song
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
This Is Halloween
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
This Is Halloween
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Lies
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lies - Zach Bryan Featuring Lana Del Rey
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lies
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 11, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 9, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the Billboard chart dated the named week. Polymarket labels mix 'Album - Artist' and 'Artist - Album'; a label is linked only when exactly one reading matches a Kalshi title.
  • Trading closes Nov 11, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 9, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • HOUSEWIFE
  • Dracula
  • Thriller

Live prices for HOUSEWIFE

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Billboard Hot 100 #2 Song Week of November 14". HOUSEWIFE leads at 92.5%. Next is Dracula at 10%. $17K has traded across 28 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 11, 2026.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. This market will resolve according to the number 2 song on the Billboard Hot 100 chart titled “Week of November 14, 2026”. Songs will be primarily ranked by order on the specified chart. If two or more songs are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the songs' listed titles. This market will resolve to the song that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant chart is published. If the Billboard Hot 100 chart for the specified week is not published within 14 calendar days of the expected release date, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be the official Billboard Hot 100 chart, published on the Billboard website (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/) or through other official Billboard channels.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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