The Prediction Markets

Bitcoin best month in 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$866K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
5 min ago
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What the markets expect

August 87.7%

Next is December at 6.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

August 87.7%December 6.5%November 4.5%October 1.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
August
87.7%
Polymarket 88.5%(87.7% fair)polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 91.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
August
Last price
88.5%
Fair, margin removed
87.7%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
91.8¢
Sell Yes
85.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
December
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
December
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
November
4.5%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
November
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket
October
1.3%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
October
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • August
  • December
  • November

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bitcoin best month in 2026?". August leads at 87.7%. Next is December at 6.5%. $866K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to the calendar month in 2026 during which Bitcoin has the highest percentage change. The “Change” value shown for each monthly candle will be used. A monthly candle is considered finalized once the following month’s candle is published. The resolution source is Binance, using the BTC/USDT trading pair: https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT If two or more months are tied for the highest percentage change, this market will resolve to the earliest month chronologically. Only Binance BTC/USDT data will be used. Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or data sources will not be considered. If it becomes impossible for a given month to have the highest percentage change in 2026, that outcome may resolve to “No” immediately.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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