The Prediction Markets

Bitcoin price at the end of 2026

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$42.7M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

80,000-82,000 44.5%

Next is 82,000-84,000 at 27.2%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
80,000-82,000
44.5%
Polymarket 49%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 41.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 38.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 40¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Polymarket
Contract
80,000-82,000
Last price
49%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
80,000-82,000
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
80,000-82,000
Last price
38.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
82,000-84,000
27.2%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 27.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 26.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
82,000-84,000
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
82,000-84,000
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
82,000-84,000
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket
78,000-80,000
18%
Polymarket 17.1%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 18.9%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 19%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
78,000-80,000
Last price
17.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
78,000-80,000
Last price
18.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20.5¢
Sell Yes
17.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$488 (4.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
78,000-80,000
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
20.4¢
Sell Yes
17.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$490 (4.90x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
80,000 to 84,999.99
14.6%
Kalshi 14.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 14.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $685 (6.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
80,000 to 84,999.99
Last price
14.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
14.6¢
Sell Yes
14.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$685 (6.85x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
75,000 to 79,999.99
13.4%
Kalshi 13.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $746 (7.46x)
Kalshi
Contract
75,000 to 79,999.99
Last price
13.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13.4¢
Sell Yes
13.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$746 (7.46x)
Volume
$3.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
85,000 to 89,999.99
13.2%
Kalshi 13.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 13.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $758 (7.58x)
Kalshi
Contract
85,000 to 89,999.99
Last price
13.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
13.2¢
Sell Yes
12.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$758 (7.58x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
90,000 to 94,999.99
10.4%
Kalshi 10.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 10.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $952 (9.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
90,000 to 94,999.99
Last price
10.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
10.5¢
Sell Yes
10.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$952 (9.52x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
70,000 to 74,999.99
8.8%
Kalshi 8.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
70,000 to 74,999.99
Last price
8.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
8.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
95,000 to 99,999.99
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
95,000 to 99,999.99
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$894K
Trade this on Kalshi
100,000 to 104,999.99
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
100,000 to 104,999.99
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 29 more outcomes
65,000 to 69,999.99
4.9%
Kalshi 4.9%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
65,000 to 69,999.99
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
84,000-86,000
4.2%
Polymarket 2.7%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 6.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
84,000-86,000
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
84,000-86,000
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
84,000-86,000
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
105,000 to 109,999.99
3.4%
Kalshi 3.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Kalshi
Contract
105,000 to 109,999.99
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$706K
Trade this on Kalshi
76,000-78,000
3.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 3.9%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 4.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
76,000-78,000
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
76,000-78,000
Last price
3.9%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$974
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
76,000-78,000
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$412
Trade this on Polymarket
60,000 to 64,999.99
3.3%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 3.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,030 (30.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
60,000 to 64,999.99
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$2.5M
Trade this on Kalshi
110,000 to 114,999.99
2.3%
Kalshi 2.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
110,000 to 114,999.99
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$672K
Trade this on Kalshi
55,000 to 59,999.99
1.6%
Kalshi 1.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
55,000 to 59,999.99
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$2.4M
Trade this on Kalshi
50,000 to 54,999.99
1.2%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
50,000 to 54,999.99
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$2.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
115,000 to 119,999.99
1.2%
Kalshi 1.2%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
115,000 to 119,999.99
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$585K
Trade this on Kalshi
45,000 to 49,999.99
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
45,000 to 49,999.99
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$2.7M
Trade this on Kalshi
120,000 to 124,999.99
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
120,000 to 124,999.99
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$701K
Trade this on Kalshi
150,000 or above
1.1%
Kalshi 1.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
150,000 or above
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$2.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
125,000 to 129,999.99
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
125,000 to 129,999.99
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$623K
Trade this on Kalshi
86,000-88,000
0.9%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.8%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
86,000-88,000
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$760
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
86,000-88,000
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$260
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
86,000-88,000
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Polymarket
35,000 to 39,999.99
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
35,000 to 39,999.99
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
40,000 to 44,999.99
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
40,000 to 44,999.99
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1.9M
Trade this on Kalshi
130,000 to 134,999.99
0.8%
Kalshi 0.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Kalshi
Contract
130,000 to 134,999.99
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$584K
Trade this on Kalshi
135,000 to 139,999.99
0.7%
Kalshi 0.7%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Kalshi
Contract
135,000 to 139,999.99
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$581K
Trade this on Kalshi
74,000-76,000
0.7%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.8%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
74,000-76,000
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
74,000-76,000
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
74,000-76,000
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$503
Trade this on Polymarket
30,000 to 34,999.99
0.6%
Kalshi 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Kalshi
Contract
30,000 to 34,999.99
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Kalshi
88,000-90,000
0.6%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 1.1%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
88,000-90,000
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$229
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
88,000-90,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
88,000-90,000
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Polymarket
72,000
0.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.8%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$502
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$623
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
72,000
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
25,000 to 29,999.99
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Kalshi
Contract
25,000 to 29,999.99
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$840K
Trade this on Kalshi
72,000-74,000
0.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.5%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.6%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
72,000-74,000
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$77
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
72,000-74,000
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
72,000-74,000
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$402
Trade this on Polymarket
20,000 to 24,999.99
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
20,000 to 24,999.99
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1.0M
Trade this on Kalshi
145,000 to 149,999.99
0.4%
Kalshi 0.4%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
145,000 to 149,999.99
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$709K
Trade this on Kalshi
90,000
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 2 h agoPolymarket 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$646
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
90,000
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
19,999.99 or below
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Kalshi
Contract
19,999.99 or below
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$858K
Trade this on Kalshi
140,000 to 144,999.99
0.3%
Kalshi 0.3%polled, 2 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Kalshi
Contract
140,000 to 144,999.99
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$622K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: binance.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: CF Benchmarks

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 80,000-82,000
  • 82,000-84,000
  • 78,000-80,000

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 80,000-82,000 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share (crypto rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bitcoin price at the end of 2026". 80,000-82,000 leads at 44.5%. Next is 82,000-84,000 at 27.2%. $42.7M has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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