The Prediction Markets

Blue tsunami in 2026?

Starts in 38 daysKickoff
Traded
$845K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Yes 59.9%

The venues differ most on Yes (Polymarket 62.5%, Kalshi 59%), a 3.5-point gap.

Yes 59.9%No 40.1%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
YesArb
59.9%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 42s agoKalshi 59%polled, 42s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$61K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yes
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$784K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 60¢ and selling on Polymarket at 61¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Yes on Kalshi at 60¢, sell on Polymarket at 61¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jan 5, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jan 5, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Feb 1, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Live prices for Yes

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Cover Yes and No across venues

Loading every outcome’s book…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Blue tsunami in 2026?". Yes leads at 59.9%. $845K has traded across 1 outcome on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Feb 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets