This market has closed
Trading ended on Mar 21, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 223 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevPolymarket: “BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 21.5”99.8%100%99.9¢ bid, — askpolled, 5361 h agoNo askBNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev99.8%Polymarket 100%polled, 5361 h ago
- Contract
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 21.5
- Last price
- 100%
- As of
- Polled 223 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99.9¢
- Volume
- $10K
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevPolymarket: “BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 23.5”0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 5361 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5361 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 23.5
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 223 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $4K
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 5361 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5361 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 223 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.9M
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevPolymarket: “BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5”0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 5361 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5361 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Set Handicap +/-1.5
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 223 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $27K
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevPolymarket: “BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 2.5”0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 5361 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5361 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Total Sets: O/U 2.5
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 223 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $15K
BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil MedvedevPolymarket: “BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 22.5”0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 5361 h ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5361 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
- Contract
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev Match O/U 22.5
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 223 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $7K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:

- UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
- BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev". BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev last traded at 99.8%. Next is BNP Paribas Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev at 0.1%. $2.0M has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Mar 21, 2026.
This market refers on the tennis match between Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev in the BNP Paribas Open, scheduled for March 14 at 2:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Carlos Alcaraz' if Carlos Alcaraz advances against Daniil Medvedev. This market will resolve to 'Daniil Medvedev' if Daniil Medvedev advances against Carlos Alcaraz. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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