The Prediction Markets

Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election: 3rd place?

Closes
Oct 4, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$177K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

SDP 93%

Next is Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! at 66%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
SDP
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
SDP
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
One Nation
58%
Polymarket 58%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
One Nation
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Greens
23.7%
Polymarket 23.7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 27.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $358 (3.58x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greens
Last price
23.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27.9¢
Sell Yes
19.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$358 (3.58x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor
13.3%
Polymarket 13.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $709 (7.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians – Dr Bálint Pásztor
Last price
13.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14.1¢
Sell Yes
12.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$709 (7.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
European Serbia – Marinika Tepić, Zdravko Ponoš
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović
11.2%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $893 (8.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
Authentic Right – Dr Miloš Jovanović
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11.2¢
Sell Yes
11.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$893 (8.93x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
HDZ coalition
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
HDZ coalition
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Labor
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Labor
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
SNSD
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
SNSD
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 33 more outcomes
Student List – Students Win
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Student List – Students Win
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
BH Zeleni
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BH Zeleni
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
BHI
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BHI
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Crvene linije
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Crvene linije
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
DF/GS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
DF/GS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
DNS-NPS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
DNS-NPS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hrvatska petorka
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hrvatska petorka
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Laburisti
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Laburisti
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Narodni front
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Narodni front
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
NES/PDA/Naprijed
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
NES/PDA/Naprijed
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
NiP
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
NiP
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
NS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
NS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
PSS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
PSS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Republikanci
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Republikanci
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
SBB
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SBB
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
SBiH
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SBiH
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
SDA
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SDA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
SDS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SDS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
SP-DEMOS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SP-DEMOS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
SPS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SPS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ujedinjena Srpska
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ujedinjena Srpska
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Volja Naroda
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volja Naroda
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
ZPR
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
ZPR
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
SDP
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rasim Ljajić – Humane (SDP – CDP)
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Liberal–National
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liberal–National
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Animal Justice
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Animal Justice
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Libertarian
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Libertarian
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Legalise Cannabis
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Legalise Cannabis
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$914
Trade this on Polymarket
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Russian Party – Serbia in BRICS – Slobodan Nikolić
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$796
Trade this on Polymarket
SDA
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
SDA of Sandžak – Guardians of Sandžak
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$722
Trade this on Polymarket
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Usame Zukorlić Movement for Unification
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$865
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: rik.parlament.gov.rs, vec.vic.gov.au
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • SDP
  • Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability!
  • One Nation

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list SDP for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bosnia and Herzegovina parliamentary election: 3rd place?". SDP leads at 93%. Next is Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! at 66%. $177K has traded across 43 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 4, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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