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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Above 3.90% 99%
Next is Above 4.10% at 98%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 3.90%99%Not listed99%98¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 28s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 3.90%99%Kalshi 99%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.90%
99%
Not listed
99%
98¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 3.90%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.90%
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 4.10%98%Not listed98%95¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 28s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.10%98%Kalshi 98%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.10%
98%
Not listed
98%
95¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.10%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.10%
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $200
Above 4.20%98%Not listed98%95¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 28s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.20%98%Kalshi 98%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.20%
98%
Not listed
98%
95¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.20%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.20%
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $200
Above 4.30%98%Not listed98%95¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 28s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.30%98%Kalshi 98%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.30%
98%
Not listed
98%
95¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.30%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.30%
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $350
Above 4.40%97%Not listed97%95¢ bid, 99¢ askpolled, 28s ago99¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Above 4.40%97%Kalshi 97%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.40%
97%
Not listed
97%
95¢ bid, 99¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
99¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Above 4.40%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.40%
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $900
Above 4.25%92%Not listed92%80¢ bid, 92¢ askpolled, 5 min ago92¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $109 (1.09x)Above 4.25%92%Kalshi 92%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 4.25%
92%
Not listed
92%
80¢ bid, 92¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
92¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Above 4.25%
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.25%
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92¢
- Sell Yes
- 80¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $109 (1.09x)
- Volume
- $195
Above 4.00%91.5%Not listed89%78¢ bid, 89¢ askpolled, 5 min ago89¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $112 (1.12x)Above 4.00%91.5%Kalshi 99%polled, 28s agoKalshi 89%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 4.00%
91.5%
Not listed
89%
78¢ bid, 89¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
89¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Above 4.00%
91.5%
Kalshi 99%polled, 28s agoKalshi 89%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.00%
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 95¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $400
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.00%
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 89¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $112 (1.12x)
- Volume
- $4K
Above 3.50%90%Not listed90%20¢ bid, — askpolled, 5 min agoNo askAbove 3.50%90%Kalshi 90%polled, 5 min ago
Above 3.50%
90%
Not listed
90%
20¢ bid, — ask
polled, 5 min ago
No ask
Above 3.50%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 5 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.50%
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- Volume
- $295
Above 3.75%90%Not listed90%75¢ bid, — askpolled, 5 min agoNo askAbove 3.75%90%Kalshi 90%polled, 5 min ago
Above 3.75%
90%
Not listed
90%
75¢ bid, — ask
polled, 5 min ago
No ask
Above 3.75%
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 5 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.75%
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 75¢
- Volume
- $1K
Above 3.25%89%Not listed89%20¢ bid, — askpolled, 5 min agoNo askAbove 3.25%89%Kalshi 89%polled, 5 min ago
Above 3.25%
89%
Not listed
89%
20¢ bid, — ask
polled, 5 min ago
No ask
Above 3.25%
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 5 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 3.25%
- Last price
- 89%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- Volume
- $68
Show 20 more outcomesHide 20 outcomes
Above 4.60%86%Not listed86%86¢ bid, 96¢ askpolled, 28s ago96¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $104 (1.04x)Above 4.60%86%Kalshi 86%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 4.60%
86%
Not listed
86%
86¢ bid, 96¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
96¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Above 4.60%
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.60%
- Last price
- 86%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 96¢
- Sell Yes
- 86¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $104 (1.04x)
- Volume
- $413
Above 4.70%79%Not listed79%71¢ bid, 79¢ askpolled, 28s ago79¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $127 (1.27x)Above 4.70%79%Kalshi 79%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.70%
79%
Not listed
79%
71¢ bid, 79¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
79¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Above 4.70%
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.70%
- Last price
- 79%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 79¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $127 (1.27x)
- Volume
- $2K
5.00-5.49%71.8%71.8%70.5¢ bid, 73.1¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed73.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $137 (1.37x)5.00-5.49%71.8%Polymarket 71.8%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 73.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
5.00-5.49%
71.8%
71.8%
70.5¢ bid, 73.1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
73.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $137 (1.37x)
5.00-5.49%
71.8%
Polymarket 71.8%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 73.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.00-5.49%
- Last price
- 71.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 73.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 70.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $137 (1.37x)
- Volume
- $29K
Above 4.50%71%Not listed5%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 5 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Above 4.50%71%Kalshi 93%polled, 28s agoKalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.50%
71%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.50%
71%
Kalshi 93%polled, 28s agoKalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.50%
- Last price
- 93%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 99¢
- Sell Yes
- 93¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.50%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $105
Above 4.80%53%Not listed53%48¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, 28s ago58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Above 4.80%53%Kalshi 53%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Above 4.80%
53%
Not listed
53%
48¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Above 4.80%
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.80%
- Last price
- 53%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 48¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
Above 4.90%24%Not listed24%24¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 28s ago34¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $294 (2.94x)Above 4.90%24%Kalshi 24%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Above 4.90%
24%
Not listed
24%
24¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
34¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Above 4.90%
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.90%
- Last price
- 24%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $30
Above 5.00%22%Not listed22%No order bookpolled, 5 min agoNo askAbove 5.00%22%Kalshi 22%polled, 5 min ago
Above 5.00%
22%
Not listed
22%
No order book
polled, 5 min ago
No ask
Above 5.00%
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 5 min ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.00%
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- —
- Volume
- $7
Above 5.50%17%Not listed17%— bid, 20¢ askpolled, 5 min ago20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Above 5.50%17%Kalshi 17%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 5.50%
17%
Not listed
17%
— bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 5.50%
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.50%
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $209
5.50-5.99%13.6%13.6%13¢ bid, 14.2¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed14.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $704 (7.04x)5.50-5.99%13.6%Polymarket 13.6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
5.50-5.99%
13.6%
13.6%
13¢ bid, 14.2¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
14.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $704 (7.04x)
5.50-5.99%
13.6%
Polymarket 13.6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.50-5.99%
- Last price
- 13.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $704 (7.04x)
- Volume
- $21K
4.50-4.99%11.7%11.7%10.9¢ bid, 12.4¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed12.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $806 (8.06x)4.50-4.99%11.7%Polymarket 11.7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
4.50-4.99%
11.7%
11.7%
10.9¢ bid, 12.4¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
12.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $806 (8.06x)
4.50-4.99%
11.7%
Polymarket 11.7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $806 (8.06x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.50-4.99%
- Last price
- 11.7%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $806 (8.06x)
- Volume
- $33K
In Dec 202611%Not listed11%4¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, 28s ago12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)In Dec 202611%Kalshi 11%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
In Dec 2026
11%
Not listed
11%
4¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
In Dec 2026
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- In Dec 2026
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $151K
Above 4.75%5%Not listed5%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 5 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Above 4.75%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.75%
5%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 4.75%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 4.75%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $407
Above 5.25%5%Not listed5%— bid, 25¢ askpolled, 5 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Above 5.25%5%Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 5.25%
5%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 5 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Above 5.25%
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 5 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 5.25%
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 5 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
- Volume
- $109
6.00-6.49%3.1%3.1%2.1¢ bid, 4.1¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed4.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)6.00-6.49%3.1%Polymarket 3.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
6.00-6.49%
3.1%
3.1%
2.1¢ bid, 4.1¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
4.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
6.00-6.49%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 4.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,439 (24.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.00-6.49%
- Last price
- 3.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,439 (24.4x)
- Volume
- $14K
7.00%+1.2%1.2%0.7¢ bid, 1.7¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed1.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)7.00%+1.2%Polymarket 1.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
7.00%+
1.2%
1.2%
0.7¢ bid, 1.7¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
1.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
7.00%+
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 7.00%+
- Last price
- 1.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,882 (58.8x)
- Volume
- $11K
4.00-4.49%0.5%0.5%0.3¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)4.00-4.49%0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
4.00-4.49%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
4.00-4.49%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.00-4.49%
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $19K
3.00%0.5%0.5%0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed0.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $14,286 (143x)3.00%0.5%Polymarket 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
3.00%
0.5%
0.5%
0.2¢ bid, 0.7¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
0.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $14,286 (143x)
3.00%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.00%
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $14,286 (143x)
- Volume
- $10K
6.50-6.99%0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)6.50-6.99%0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
6.50-6.99%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
6.50-6.99%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 6.50-6.99%
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $12K
3.50-3.99%0.2%0.2%— bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)3.50-3.99%0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
3.50-3.99%
0.2%
0.2%
— bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
3.50-3.99%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.50-3.99%
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $16K
3.00-3.49%0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, 28s agoNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)3.00-3.49%0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
3.00-3.49%
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, 28s ago
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
3.00-3.49%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.00-3.49%
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $9K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics, IGBE
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 3.90%
- Above 4.10%
- Above 4.20%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.90% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Brazil Annual Inflation 2026". Above 3.90% leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.10% at 98%. $337K has traded across 30 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 13, 2027.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report. The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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