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What the markets expect
2.0–2.5% 55%
Next is 0.3% to -0.1% at 45%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
2.0–2.5%55%55%49¢ bid, 61¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed61¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $164 (1.64x)2.0–2.5%55%Polymarket 55%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
2.0–2.5%
55%
55%
49¢ bid, 61¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
61¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $164 (1.64x)
2.0–2.5%
55%
Polymarket 55%polled, just nowBest Yes 61¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.0–2.5%
- Last price
- 55%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 61¢
- Sell Yes
- 49¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $164 (1.64x)
- Volume
- $21K
0.3% to -0.1%45%45%43¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed47¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $213 (2.13x)0.3% to -0.1%45%Polymarket 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
0.3% to -0.1%
45%
45%
43¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
47¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
0.3% to -0.1%
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.3% to -0.1%
- Last price
- 45%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 43¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $11K
2.5%43.2%43.2%38.1¢ bid, 48.2¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed48.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $207 (2.07x)2.5%43.2%Polymarket 43.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
2.5%
43.2%
43.2%
38.1¢ bid, 48.2¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
48.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $207 (2.07x)
2.5%
43.2%
Polymarket 43.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 48.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $207 (2.07x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.5%
- Last price
- 43.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 48.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 38.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $207 (2.07x)
- Volume
- $25K
Above 1.0%40%Not listed40%38¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, just now47¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Above 1.0%40%Kalshi 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Above 1.0%
40%
Not listed
40%
38¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, just now
47¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Above 1.0%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, just nowBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.0%
- Last price
- 40%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 38¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $702
Above 1.1%38.5%Not listed38.5%34¢ bid, 43¢ askpolled, just now43¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $233 (2.33x)Above 1.1%38.5%Kalshi 38.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Above 1.1%
38.5%
Not listed
38.5%
34¢ bid, 43¢ ask
polled, just now
43¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Above 1.1%
38.5%
Kalshi 38.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.1%
- Last price
- 38.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 43¢
- Sell Yes
- 34¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $233 (2.33x)
Above 1.2%33.5%Not listed33.5%29¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, just now38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Above 1.2%33.5%Kalshi 33.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Above 1.2%
33.5%
Not listed
33.5%
29¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, just now
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Above 1.2%
33.5%
Kalshi 33.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.2%
- Last price
- 33.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
Above 1.3%32.5%Not listed32.5%28¢ bid, 37¢ askpolled, just now37¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $270 (2.70x)Above 1.3%32.5%Kalshi 32.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Above 1.3%
32.5%
Not listed
32.5%
28¢ bid, 37¢ ask
polled, just now
37¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Above 1.3%
32.5%
Kalshi 32.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.3%
- Last price
- 32.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 37¢
- Sell Yes
- 28¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $270 (2.70x)
Above 1.4%32%Not listed32%24¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just now32¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $313 (3.13x)Above 1.4%32%Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Above 1.4%
32%
Not listed
32%
24¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
32¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Above 1.4%
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.4%
- Last price
- 32%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $877
2.5–2.9%30.5%30.5%29¢ bid, 32¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed32¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $313 (3.13x)2.5–2.9%30.5%Polymarket 30.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
2.5–2.9%
30.5%
30.5%
29¢ bid, 32¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
32¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $313 (3.13x)
2.5–2.9%
30.5%
Polymarket 30.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 32¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.5–2.9%
- Last price
- 30.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 32¢
- Sell Yes
- 29¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $313 (3.13x)
- Volume
- $14K
Above 1.5%29%Not listed29%20¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, just now29¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $345 (3.45x)Above 1.5%29%Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Above 1.5%
29%
Not listed
29%
20¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, just now
29¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Above 1.5%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.5%
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 20¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $237
Show 25 more outcomesHide 25 outcomes
3.0–3.4%28%28%27¢ bid, 29¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed29¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $345 (3.45x)3.0–3.4%28%Polymarket 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
3.0–3.4%
28%
28%
27¢ bid, 29¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
29¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $345 (3.45x)
3.0–3.4%
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, just nowBest Yes 29¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.0–3.4%
- Last price
- 28%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 29¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $345 (3.45x)
- Volume
- $27K
Above 1.6%26%Not listed26%17¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, just now26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)Above 1.6%26%Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Above 1.6%
26%
Not listed
26%
17¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, just now
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Above 1.6%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.6%
- Last price
- 26%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 17¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $244
0.0% to 0.2%22%22%21¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed23¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $435 (4.35x)0.0% to 0.2%22%Polymarket 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
0.0% to 0.2%
22%
22%
21¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
23¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
0.0% to 0.2%
22%
Polymarket 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.0% to 0.2%
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $16K
0.3%16.3%16.3%10.5¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed22¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $455 (4.55x)0.3%16.3%Polymarket 16.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
0.3%
16.3%
16.3%
10.5¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
22¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
0.3%
16.3%
Polymarket 16.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.3%
- Last price
- 16.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 10.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $2K
Above 1.8%16%Not listed16%11¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, just now20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Above 1.8%16%Kalshi 16%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 1.8%
16%
Not listed
16%
11¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, just now
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 1.8%
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.8%
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 11¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $62
2.0–2.4%14%14%12¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed16¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $625 (6.25x)2.0–2.4%14%Polymarket 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
2.0–2.4%
14%
14%
12¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
16¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
2.0–2.4%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.0–2.4%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $14K
Above 1.7%14%Not listed14%14¢ bid, 23¢ askpolled, just now23¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $435 (4.35x)Above 1.7%14%Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 1.7%
14%
Not listed
14%
14¢ bid, 23¢ ask
polled, just now
23¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Above 1.7%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.7%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 23¢
- Sell Yes
- 14¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $435 (4.35x)
- Volume
- $487
Above 2.0%14%Not listed14%5¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, just now14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Above 2.0%14%Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Above 2.0%
14%
Not listed
14%
5¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, just now
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Above 2.0%
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.0%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $300
Above 1.9%12.5%Not listed12.5%8¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, just now17¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $588 (5.88x)Above 1.9%12.5%Kalshi 12.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Above 1.9%
12.5%
Not listed
12.5%
8¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, just now
17¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Above 1.9%
12.5%
Kalshi 12.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.9%
- Last price
- 12.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
Above 2.1%12%Not listed12%3¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Above 2.1%12%Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Above 2.1%
12%
Not listed
12%
3¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Above 2.1%
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.1%
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
- Volume
- $200
3.5–3.9%11.3%11.3%2.5¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed20¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $500 (5.00x)3.5–3.9%11.3%Polymarket 11.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
3.5–3.9%
11.3%
11.3%
2.5¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
20¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
3.5–3.9%
11.3%
Polymarket 11.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 3.5–3.9%
- Last price
- 11.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $2K
2.0%5.1%5.1%1.1¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)2.0%5.1%Polymarket 5.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
2.0%
5.1%
5.1%
1.1¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
2.0%
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 2.0%
- Last price
- 5.1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $1K
Above 2.2%4.5%Not listed4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Above 2.2%4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 2.2%
4.5%
Not listed
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 2.2%
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.2%
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
0.3% to 0.5%4.3%4.3%2.1¢ bid, 6.5¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed6.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)0.3% to 0.5%4.3%Polymarket 4.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
0.3% to 0.5%
4.3%
4.3%
2.1¢ bid, 6.5¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
6.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
0.3% to 0.5%
4.3%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.3% to 0.5%
- Last price
- 4.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,538 (15.4x)
- Volume
- $7K
4.0–4.4%2.9%2.9%0.7¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)4.0–4.4%2.9%Polymarket 2.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
4.0–4.4%
2.9%
2.9%
0.7¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
4.0–4.4%
2.9%
Polymarket 2.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.0–4.4%
- Last price
- 2.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
0.6% to 0.8%2.6%2.6%0.3¢ bid, 4.9¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed4.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)0.6% to 0.8%2.6%Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
0.6% to 0.8%
2.6%
2.6%
0.3¢ bid, 4.9¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
4.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
0.6% to 0.8%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.6% to 0.8%
- Last price
- 2.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,041 (20.4x)
- Volume
- $351
1.5–2.0%1.9%1.9%1¢ bid, 2.8¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed2.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)1.5–2.0%1.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
1.5–2.0%
1.9%
1.9%
1¢ bid, 2.8¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
2.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
1.5–2.0%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1.5–2.0%
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 2.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,571 (35.7x)
- Volume
- $10K
0.9% to 1.1%1.9%1.9%0.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed3.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)0.9% to 1.1%1.9%Polymarket 1.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
0.9% to 1.1%
1.9%
1.9%
0.3¢ bid, 3.4¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
3.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
0.9% to 1.1%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, just nowBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.9% to 1.1%
- Last price
- 1.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,941 (29.4x)
- Volume
- $3K
Above 2.3%1%Not listed1%— bid, 5¢ askpolled, just now5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 2.3%1%Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 2.3%
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 5¢ ask
polled, just now
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 2.3%
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, just nowBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.3%
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $500
1.2%0.6%0.6%0.1¢ bid, 1¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $10,000 (100x)1.2%0.6%Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1.2%
0.6%
0.6%
0.1¢ bid, 1¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
1.2%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, just nowBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1.2%
- Last price
- 0.6%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $336
0.5–1.0%0.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)0.5–1.0%0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
0.5–1.0%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
0.5–1.0%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.5–1.0%
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $18K
0.5%0.3%0.3%0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $25,000 (250x)0.5%0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
0.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.1¢ bid, 0.4¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $25,000 (250x)
0.5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 0.5%
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $25,000 (250x)
- Volume
- $9K
1.0–1.5%0.3%0.3%0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $33,333 (333x)1.0–1.5%0.3%Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
1.0–1.5%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2¢ bid, 0.3¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $33,333 (333x)
1.0–1.5%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 1.0–1.5%
- Last price
- 0.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $33,333 (333x)
- Volume
- $6K
4.5–4.9%0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)4.5–4.9%0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
4.5–4.9%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
4.5–4.9%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 4.5–4.9%
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $1K
5.0%+0.2%0.2%0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ askpolled, just nowNot listed0.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $50,000 (500x)5.0%+0.2%Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
5.0%+
0.2%
0.2%
0.1¢ bid, 0.2¢ ask
polled, just now
Not listed
0.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $50,000 (500x)
5.0%+
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 5.0%+
- Last price
- 0.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 0.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $50,000 (500x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: bea.gov, bok.or.kr, ibge.gov.br
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 2.0–2.5%
- 0.3% to -0.1%
- 2.5%
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 2.0–2.5% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Brazil GDP growth YoY in Q3 2026". 2.0–2.5% leads at 55%. Next is 0.3% to -0.1% at 45%. $195K has traded across 35 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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