The Prediction Markets

Brazil inflation rate in October

Closes
Nov 12, 2026, in 19 days
Traded
$223K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.90% 99%

Next is Above 4.00% at 99%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 3.90%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.90%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
98¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.00%
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.00%
Last price
99%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.10%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.10%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.20%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.20%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.30%
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.30%
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$350
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.40%
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.40%
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.50%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.50%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
3.7%
86.5%
Polymarket 86.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.7%
Last price
86.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.60%
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.60%
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Kalshi
5.00-5.49%
72.4%
Polymarket 72.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.00-5.49%
Last price
72.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
69.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 32 more outcomes
Above 4.70%
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.70%
Last price
65%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.80%
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.80%
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
0.3%
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 38¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3%
Last price
37%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.2%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.2%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 4.90%
20%
Kalshi 20%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.90%
Last price
20%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$30
Trade this on Kalshi
0.4%
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.4%
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
5.50-5.99%
13.1%
Polymarket 13.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $704 (7.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
5.50-5.99%
Last price
13.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14.2¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$704 (7.04x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.50-4.99%
12.5%
Polymarket 12.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 14.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $680 (6.80x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.50-4.99%
Last price
12.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
14.7¢
Sell Yes
10.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$680 (6.80x)
Volume
$33K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.1%
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.1%
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.5%
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 11.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $885 (8.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.5%
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
11.3¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$885 (8.85x)
Volume
$822
Trade this on Polymarket
3.8%
6.6%
Polymarket 6.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 7.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,333 (13.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.8%
Last price
6.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
7.5¢
Sell Yes
5.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,333 (13.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.9%
3.7%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.9%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
6.00-6.49%
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.00-6.49%
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.0%
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.0%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.4%
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.4%
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$748
Trade this on Polymarket
7.00%+
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
7.00%+
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.1%
0.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.1%
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.3%
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.3%
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$833
Trade this on Polymarket
3.2%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.2%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
0.8%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.8%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$367
Trade this on Polymarket
0.9%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.9%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$457
Trade this on Polymarket
3.5%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.5%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$676
Trade this on Polymarket
0.7%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.7%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$378
Trade this on Polymarket
3.3%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.3%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$662
Trade this on Polymarket
0.6%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$533
Trade this on Polymarket
4.00-4.49%
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.00-4.49%
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.00%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.00%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.6%
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.6%
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$642
Trade this on Polymarket
6.50-6.99%
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
6.50-6.99%
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
4.2%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
4.2%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$723
Trade this on Polymarket
3.50-3.99%
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.50-3.99%
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
3.00-3.49%
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
3.00-3.49%
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br, bls.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IGBE, Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.90%
  • Above 4.00%
  • Above 4.10%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 3.90% for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Brazil inflation rate in October". Above 3.90% leads at 99%. Next is Above 4.00% at 99%. $223K has traded across 42 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 12, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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