The Prediction Markets

Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$45K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
16 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above $2.3 trillion 97%

Next is Above $2.1 trillion at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 17 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above $2.3 trillion
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.3 trillion
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.1 trillion
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 16 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.1 trillion
Last price
95%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$669
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.2 trillion
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.2 trillion
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.4 trillion
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.4 trillion
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.5 trillion
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.5 trillion
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$380
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.6 trillion
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.6 trillion
Last price
54%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$317
Trade this on Kalshi
0.3% to -0.1%
45%
Polymarket 45%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3% to -0.1%
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $2.7 trillion
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.7 trillion
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$115
Trade this on Kalshi
0.3%
25%
Polymarket 25%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 34.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $291 (2.91x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3%
Last price
25%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
34.4¢
Sell Yes
15.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$291 (2.91x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
0.0% to 0.2%
22.5%
Polymarket 22.5%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.0% to 0.2%
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Above $2.8 trillion
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.8 trillion
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $2.9 trillion
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $2.9 trillion
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$89
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.2 trillion
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.2 trillion
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
0.3% to 0.5%
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 6.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,538 (15.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.3% to 0.5%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $3.0 trillion
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.0 trillion
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi
0.6% to 0.8%
2.6%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.6% to 0.8%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$351
Trade this on Polymarket
Above $3.1 trillion
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 16 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.1 trillion
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 16 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
0.9% to 1.1%
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
0.9% to 1.1%
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
1.2%
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 17 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
1.2%
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 17 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$336
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ibge.gov.br
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $2.3 trillion
  • Above $2.1 trillion
  • Above $2.2 trillion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above $2.3 trillion for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Brazil Nominal GDP in 2026". Above $2.3 trillion leads at 97%. Next is Above $2.1 trillion at 95%. $45K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More economics markets

See all economics markets