The Prediction Markets

Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory

Closes
Oct 25, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$135K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% 33.6%

Next is Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% at 28.3%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% 33.6%Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% 28.3%Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9% 16.8%Lula da Silva, 0-3% 13.3%Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9% 3.5%3 others 4.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
33.6%
Kalshi 38%(33.6% fair)polled, 23s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
Last price
38%
Fair, margin removed
33.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
28.3%
Kalshi 32%(28.3% fair)polled, 23s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
Last price
32%
Fair, margin removed
28.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%
16.8%
Kalshi 19%(16.8% fair)polled, 23s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%
Last price
19%
Fair, margin removed
16.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lula da Silva, 0-3%
13.3%
Kalshi 15%(13.3% fair)polled, 23s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lula da Silva, 0-3%
Last price
15%
Fair, margin removed
13.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
3.5%
Kalshi 4%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥9%
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lula da Silva, 3-6%
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lula da Silva, 3-6%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lula da Silva, ≥9%
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lula da Silva, ≥9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lula da Silva, 6-9%
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 23s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lula da Silva, 6-9%
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6%
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3%
  • Flávio Bolsonaro, 6-9%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory". Flávio Bolsonaro, 3-6% leads at 33.6%. Next is Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-3% at 28.3%. $135K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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