The Prediction Markets

Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?

Closes
Oct 25, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$10K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

United States 97%

Next is Greece at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
United States
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 2 min ago
Kalshi
Contract
United States
Last price
97%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Greece
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greece
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Mexico
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mexico
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Colombia
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colombia
Last price
76%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Venezuela
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Venezuela
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa Rica
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa Rica
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$244
Trade this on Kalshi
Argentina
49.5%
Kalshi 49.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Argentina
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Chile
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chile
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Uruguay
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Uruguay
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Switzerland
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Switzerland
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Belgium
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • United States
  • Greece
  • Mexico

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Brazil presidential runoff: which countries will Flávio Bolsonaro win?". United States leads at 97%. Next is Greece at 89%. $10K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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