The Prediction Markets

Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027

Closes
Dec 4, 2026, in 42 days
Traded
$16K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Between 43 and 48.99 million 49.1%

Next is Between 37 and 42.99 million at 32.7%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Between 43 and 48.99 million 49.1%Between 37 and 42.99 million 32.7%Between 49 and 55 million 12.8%Between 29 and 36.99 million 2.7%Below 29 million 1.8%Above 55 million 0.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Between 43 and 48.99 million
49.1%
Kalshi 54%(49.1% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 43 and 48.99 million
Last price
54%
Fair, margin removed
49.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 37 and 42.99 million
32.7%
Kalshi 36%(32.7% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 37 and 42.99 million
Last price
36%
Fair, margin removed
32.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 49 and 55 million
12.8%
Kalshi 14%(12.7% fair)polled, 21s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 49 and 55 million
Last price
14%
Fair, margin removed
12.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Between 29 and 36.99 million
2.7%
Kalshi 3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Between 29 and 36.99 million
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$269
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 29 million
1.8%
Kalshi 2%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 29 million
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$164
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 55 million
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 55 million
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Alaska Department of Fish and Game

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Between 43 and 48.99 million
  • Between 37 and 42.99 million
  • Between 49 and 55 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bristol Bay sockeye run forecast for 2027". Between 43 and 48.99 million leads at 49.1%. Next is Between 37 and 42.99 million at 32.7%. $16K has traded across 6 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 4, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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