The Prediction Markets

Bublik vs Khachanov

Starts in 16 hKickoff
Traded
$32K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5 74%

Next is Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5 at 66%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
74%
Polymarket 74%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
66%
Polymarket 66%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
66%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
60%
Polymarket 60%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 65¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 22.5
Last price
60%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
54.5%
Polymarket 54.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 2 Winner
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bublik
53.6%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 54%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Bublik
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$846
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 53¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
52.5%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 21.5
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 1 Winner
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
52%
Polymarket 52%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Game Spread +/-0.5
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
51¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
51.5%
Polymarket 51.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
Last price
51.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$46
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 3 min ago
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
1¢
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
48%
Polymarket 48%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Karen Khachanov
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 50s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Karen Khachanov
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
44%
Polymarket 44%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
32%
Polymarket 32%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 2:30 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
  • Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5
  • Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bublik vs Khachanov". Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5 leads at 74%. Next is Almaty Open: Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov Match O/U 23.5 at 66%. $32K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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