The Prediction Markets

Bulgaria Presidential Election

Starts in 39 daysKickoff
Traded
$1.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Iliana Yotova 88%

Next is Iliana Iotova at 87.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Iliana Yotova
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iliana Yotova
Last price
88%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$24K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iliana Iotova
87.5%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iliana Iotova
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$471K
Trade this on Polymarket
ndrey Gyurov
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
ndrey Gyurov
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$358K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrey Gyurov
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Natalia Kiselova
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nataliya Kiselova
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$627
Trade this on Kalshi
Vassil Terziev
0.1%
Kalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vasil Terziev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Atanas Atanasov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atanas Atanasov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Atanas Atanasov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$606
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Blagomir Kotsev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blagomir Kotsev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Blagomir Kotsev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Krum Zarkov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Krum Zarkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Krum Zarkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Nikolai Denkov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolai Denkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$78K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nikolai Denkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Show 8 more outcomes
Rosen Zhelyazkov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Kostadin Kostadinov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$117K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$636
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Yanaki Stoilov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoKalshi 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yanaki Stoilov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Yanaki Stoilov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$601
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 0.1¢.

Boyko Borissov
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boyko Borissov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Polymarket
Delyan Peevski
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delyan Peevski
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Natalia Kiselova
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalia Kiselova
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Plevneliev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Plevneliev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Polymarket
Vassil Terziev
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 53s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vassil Terziev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$40K
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: cik.bg
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Oct 26, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 15, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Iliana Yotova
  • Iliana Iotova
  • ndrey Gyurov

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Iliana Yotova for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bulgaria Presidential Election". Iliana Yotova leads at 88%. Next is Iliana Iotova at 87.5%. $1.4M has traded across 18 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Presidential elections in Bulgaria are expected to be held in the Fall of 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the next presidential election in Bulgaria. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bulgarian government, specifically the Central Election Commission (Centralna izbiratelna komisia, CEC) (www.cik.bg/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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