The Prediction Markets

Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Closes
Oct 25, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$81K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Andrey Gyurov 73.4%

Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 36%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Andrey GyurovArb
73.4%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 98%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
97.8¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Andrey Gyurov
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 3.8¢ and selling on Kalshi at 93¢ nets 8920 bps before fees.

Jean-Luc Mélenchon
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
35¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kostadin KostadinovArb
31.1%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 93.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kostadin Kostadinov
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 92¢ nets 8600 bps before fees.

douard Philippe
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
douard Philippe
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
David Lisnard
13.1%
Polymarket 13.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $645 (6.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
David Lisnard
Last price
13.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.5¢
Sell Yes
10.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$645 (6.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Le Pen
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Le Pen
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Raphaël Glucksmann
11%
Polymarket 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raphaël Glucksmann
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iliana Yotova
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iliana Yotova
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivan Hristanov
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivan Hristanov
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Blagomir Kotsev
1.5%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Blagomir Kotsev
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$516
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Blagomir Kotsev
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.3¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,075 (10.8x)
Volume
$169
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 26 more outcomes
Natalia Kiselova
1.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 4.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Natalia Kiselova
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$414
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Natalia Kiselova
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
8.2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,220 (12.2x)
Volume
$196
Trade this on Polymarket
François Hollande
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,348 (43.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Hollande
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2.3¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,348 (43.5x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Atanas Atanasov
1.2%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Atanas Atanasov
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Atanas Atanasov
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Retailleau
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,263 (52.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Retailleau
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,263 (52.6x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iliana Iotova
1.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $9,091 (90.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iliana Iotova
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$748
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Iliana Iotova
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Boyko Borissov
1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Boyko Borissov
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$470
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Boyko Borissov
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,408 (14.1x)
Volume
$167
Trade this on Polymarket
Ivaylo Simeonov
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivaylo Simeonov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Ivelin Mihaylov
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ivelin Mihaylov
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Nikolay Nenchev
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nikolay Nenchev
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Radostin Vasilev
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Radostin Vasilev
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rosen Zhelyazkov
0.9%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Zhelyazkov
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Delyan Peevski
0.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Delyan Peevski
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$578
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Delyan Peevski
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Yanaki Stoilov
0.9%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yanaki Stoilov
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$528
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yanaki Stoilov
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,273 (22.7x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Rosen Plevneliev
0.9%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Plevneliev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$425
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Rosen Plevneliev
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Gabriel Attal
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Attal
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$895
Trade this on Polymarket
Vassil Terziev
0.8%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vassil Terziev
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$567
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Vassil Terziev
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$173
Trade this on Polymarket
Nikolai Denkov
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolai Denkov
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$546
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nikolai Denkov
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$208
Trade this on Polymarket
Krum Zarkov
0.8%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoPolymarket 2.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Krum Zarkov
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$488
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Krum Zarkov
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Christine Lagarde
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christine Lagarde
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$920
Trade this on Polymarket
ric Zemmour
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
ric Zemmour
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Polymarket
Sébastien Lecornu
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sébastien Lecornu
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$962
Trade this on Polymarket
Dominique de Villepin
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dominique de Villepin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$735
Trade this on Polymarket
Jordan Bardella
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jordan Bardella
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$850
Trade this on Polymarket
François Ruffin
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
François Ruffin
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Polymarket
Marine Tondelier
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marine Tondelier
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$667
Trade this on Polymarket
Sarah Knafo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sarah Knafo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$424
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Andrey Gyurov on Polymarket at 3.8¢, sell on Kalshi at 93¢ (8920 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Central Election Commission of Bulgaria
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 18, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Andrey Gyurov
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon
  • Kostadin Kostadinov

Live prices for Andrey Gyurov

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bulgaria Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place". Andrey Gyurov leads at 73.4%. Next is Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 36%. $81K has traded across 36 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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