The Prediction Markets

Bundesliga Champion

Closes
Jun 6, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$1.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bayern Munich 84.9%

Next is Dortmund at 5.3%. The venues differ most on Bayern Munich (Polymarket 88.5%, Kalshi 91%), a 2.5-point gap.

Bayern Munich 84.9%Dortmund 5.3%Leverkusen 1.7%Freiburg 1.3%FC Cologne 0.9%14 others 5.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 36 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bayern MunichArb
84.9%
Polymarket 88.5%(86.4% fair)live, just nowKalshi 91%(80.1% fair)live, just nowBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bayern Munich
Price
88.5%
Fair, margin removed
86.4%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$96K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bayern Munich
Price
91%
Fair, margin removed
80.1%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 89¢ and selling on Kalshi at 91¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Dortmund
5.3%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 49s agoKalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 49s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Borussia Dortmund
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$57K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dortmund
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Leverkusen
1.7%
Polymarket 1.7%polled, 49s agoKalshi 2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bayer Leverkusen
Last price
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Leverkusen
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Freiburg
1.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
SC Freiburg
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Freiburg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

FC Cologne
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
FC Cologne
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$732
Trade this on Kalshi
Leipzig
0.8%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
RB Leipzig
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Leipzig
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Augsburg
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
FC Augsburg
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$94K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Augsburg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Stuttgart
0.5%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
VfB Stuttgart
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$64K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stuttgart
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Bremen
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Werder Bremen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$112K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bremen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Elversberg
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
SV Elversberg
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$54K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elversberg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Show 9 more outcomes
Frankfurt
0.4%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 49s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eintracht Frankfurt
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$80K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Frankfurt
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Hamburg
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Hamburger SV
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$126K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hamburg
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Hoffenheim
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
TSG Hoffenheim
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$73K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Hoffenheim
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Paderborn
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
SC Paderborn
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paderborn
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$7
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Schalke
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Schalke 04
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$81K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Schalke
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Union Berlin
0.4%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Union Berlin
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$113K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Union Berlin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

M´gladbach
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$76K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
M´gladbach
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Mainz
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoKalshi 1%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mainz 05
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$84K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mainz
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

1. FC Köln
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 49s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
1. FC Köln
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$65K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Bayern Munich on Polymarket at 89¢, sell on Kalshi at 91¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: 3 differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the official league/organizer result for the named season; Kalshi's season is the ticker edition (KXNBA-27 = 2026-27) and Polymarket's is stated in the title or slug.
  • Season cancelled or not completed: Kalshi resolves per its rules (typically a fair price); Polymarket resolves to 'Other' or 50-50 depending on the event.
  • Polymarket lists placeholders ('Other', 'Team A') and closes eliminated outcomes early; only live named outcomes are linked.
  • Trading closes Jun 15, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 6, 2027, 2:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bayern Munich
  • Dortmund
  • Leverkusen

Live prices for Bayern Munich

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bundesliga Champion". Bayern Munich leads at 84.9%. Next is Dortmund at 5.3%. $1.5M has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 6, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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