The Prediction Markets

Bundesliga Relegation

Closes
Jul 15, 2027, in 9 months
Traded
$27K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

M´gladbach 52%

Next is Paderborn at 42%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
M´gladbach
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 61¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $164 (1.64x)
Kalshi
Contract
M´gladbach
Last price
52%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$118
Trade this on Kalshi
Paderborn
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Paderborn
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Union Berlin
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Union Berlin
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$53
Trade this on Kalshi
Schalke
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Schalke
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Kalshi
Hamburg
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hamburg
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bremen
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bremen
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Elversberg
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elversberg
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$68
Trade this on Kalshi
FC Cologne
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
FC Cologne
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Frankfurt
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Frankfurt
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Kalshi
Stuttgart
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stuttgart
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 8 more outcomes
Augsburg
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Augsburg
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Dortmund
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dortmund
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Mainz
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mainz
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Hoffenheim
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hoffenheim
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Bayern Munich
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bayern Munich
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Freiburg
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Freiburg
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Leipzig
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leipzig
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Leverkusen
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Leverkusen
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • M´gladbach
  • Paderborn
  • Union Berlin

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Bundesliga Relegation". M´gladbach leads at 52%. Next is Paderborn at 42%. $27K has traded across 18 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 15, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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