The Prediction Markets

CA-04 Primary Winners

FinalKickoff
Traded
$30K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 2, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 159 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Mike Thompson
97.6%
Polymarket 97.6%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 98.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mike Thompson
Last price
97.6%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
98.8¢
Sell Yes
96.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Jones
90.9%
Polymarket 90.9%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 91.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Jones
Last price
90.9%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
91.8¢
Sell Yes
89.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Heath Fulkerson
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Heath Fulkerson
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$396
Trade this on Polymarket
Trevor Merrell
8.1%
Polymarket 8.1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 9.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,064 (10.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Trevor Merrell
Last price
8.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
9.4¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,064 (10.6x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
John Wesley Tyler
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
John Wesley Tyler
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$894
Trade this on Polymarket
Laurie MacKenzie
5.1%
Polymarket 5.1%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Laurie MacKenzie
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
7.4¢
Sell Yes
2.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,351 (13.5x)
Volume
$710
Trade this on Polymarket
Sharon Brown
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sharon Brown
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Mandy Ghusar
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 3826 h agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mandy Ghusar
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 159 d ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Mike Thompson
  • Eric Jones
  • Heath Fulkerson

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "CA-04 Primary Winners". Mike Thompson last traded at 97.6%. Next is Eric Jones at 90.9%. $30K has traded across 8 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on Jun 2, 2026.

The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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