The Prediction Markets

CA-22 House election: David Valadao vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 38% 96%

Next is At least 40% at 85%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 38%
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 59s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 38%
Last price
96%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
92¢
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 40%
85%
Kalshi 85%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 40%
Last price
85%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$189
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 42%
72%
Kalshi 72%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 42%
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$109
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 44%
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 44%
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 46%
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 46%
Last price
44%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$87
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 48%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 48%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Sacramento, CA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 38%
  • At least 40%
  • At least 42%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CA-22 House election: David Valadao vote percent". At least 38% leads at 96%. Next is At least 40% at 85%. $5K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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