The Prediction Markets

CA-39 House Election Winner

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$63K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Democratic 96.8%

Next is Republican at 3.2%. The venues differ most on Democratic (Polymarket 96.4%, Kalshi 97.4%), a 1.0-point gap.

Democratic 96.8%Republican 3.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 7 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Democratic
96.8%
Polymarket 96.4%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 97.4%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 97.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Takano (D)
Last price
96.4%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
97.6¢
Sell Yes
95.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Takano
Last price
97.4%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
95.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 95.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 97.6¢.

Republican
3.2%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 7 min agoKalshi 2.7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Manos (R)
Last price
3.4%
As of
Polled 7 min ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Manos
Last price
2.7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 7 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.6¢.

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: 4 differences

Where they differ

  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: fec.gov
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress
Show full rule comparison
  • Kalshi settles on the party of the officeholder sworn in/inaugurated for the new term; Polymarket settles on the party of the called winner. They differ if the winner dies, withdraws or is not seated before the term starts.
  • Independents: Polymarket assigns a non-affiliated winner by stated caucus (House) or excludes independents from party options (Senate/Governor); Kalshi requires party membership.
  • Kalshi may close early on a media-consensus projection; Polymarket resolves on consensus calls with certification as the fallback.
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Democratic
  • Republican

Live prices for Democratic

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "CA-39 House Election Winner". Democratic leads at 96.8%. Next is Republican at 3.2%. $63K has traded across 2 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-39 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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