The Prediction Markets

California 04 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 160K 96.5%

Next is Above 170K at 96.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 160K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180K
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180K
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190K
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190K
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$17
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$228
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210K
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210K
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$813
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220K
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 230K
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
62%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$72
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Above 270K
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
34%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300K
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 340K
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 340K
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 360K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 360K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 160K
  • Above 170K
  • Above 180K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 04 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 160K leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 170K at 96.5%. $3K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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