The Prediction Markets

California 06 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 163K 97%

Next is Above 187K at 93.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 163K
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 35s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 163K
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 187K
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 187K
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 171K
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 35s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 171K
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 179K
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 35s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above 179K
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Volume
$700
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 196K
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 196K
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 205K
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 205K
Last price
77%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 214K
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 214K
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 223K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 223K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 241K
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 241K
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 287K
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 35s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 287K
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 163K
  • Above 187K
  • Above 171K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 06 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 163K leads at 97%. Next is Above 187K at 93.5%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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