The Prediction Markets

California 07 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 128K 96.5%

Next is Above 166K at 95.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 128K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 128K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 166K
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 166K
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 193K
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 193K
Last price
81%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
76%
Kalshi 76%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
76%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210K
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210K
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220K
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$453
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 230K
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 254K
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 254K
Last price
32%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 54s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 128K
  • Above 166K
  • Above 193K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 07 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 128K leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 166K at 95.5%. $3K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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