The Prediction Markets

California 14 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 80K 96.5%

Next is Above 121K at 91%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 80K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 121K
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 121K
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 150K
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150K
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$604
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 157K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 157K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 172K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 172K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 165K
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 165K
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$227
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180K
47%
Kalshi 47%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180K
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$755
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
33%
Kalshi 33%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$33
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220K
28%
Kalshi 28%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 34¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 237K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 237K
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 255K
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 255K
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 80K
  • Above 121K
  • Above 150K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 14 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 80K leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 121K at 91%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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