The Prediction Markets

California 18 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 103K 97%

Next is Above 108K at 96.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 103K
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above 103K
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
94¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 108K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above 108K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 114K
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above 114K
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
90¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 119K
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, just nowBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 119K
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 124K
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 124K
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 129K
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, just nowBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 129K
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
74¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 145K
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, just nowBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 145K
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160K
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, just nowBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160K
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170K
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, just nowBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170K
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180K
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, just nowBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180K
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190K
7.5%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190K
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, just nowBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 103K
  • Above 108K
  • Above 114K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 18 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 103K leads at 97%. Next is Above 108K at 96.5%. $1K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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