The Prediction Markets

California 19 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 190K 96.5%

Next is Above 200K at 95.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 190K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
95.5%
Kalshi 95.5%polled, just now
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
95.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
91¢
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, just nowBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$800
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220K
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, just nowBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
82%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 230K
75%
Kalshi 75%polled, just nowBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
75%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, just nowBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 250K
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, just nowBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 250K
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, just nowBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, just nowBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 190K
  • Above 200K
  • Above 210K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 19 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 190K leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 200K at 95.5%. $1K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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