The Prediction Markets

California 34 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 70K 96.5%

Next is Above 75K at 96.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 70K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 70K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 75K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 75K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 80K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 80K
Last price
96.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
94¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 85K
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 85K
Last price
96%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 95K
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 95K
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 90K
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 90K
Last price
92%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
92¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$418
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 100K
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 100K
Last price
91%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 105K
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 105K
Last price
87%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 110K
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 89¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 110K
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 117K
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 81¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 117K
Last price
69%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$629
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 11 more outcomes
Above 128K
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 128K
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 123K
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 123K
Last price
61%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$31
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 134K
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 134K
Last price
53%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 140K
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 51¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 140K
Last price
51%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$318
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 146K
32%
Kalshi 32%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 146K
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 152K
31%
Kalshi 31%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 152K
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 158K
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 158K
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$311
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 164K
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 164K
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170K
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170K
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 176K
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 176K
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 182K
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 182K
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 70K
  • Above 75K
  • Above 80K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 34 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 70K leads at 96.5%. Next is Above 75K at 96.5%. $2K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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