The Prediction Markets

California 36 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 220K 94%

Next is Above 240K at 87%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 220K
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 260K
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260K
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270K
69%
Kalshi 69%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270K
Last price
69%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280K
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280K
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290K
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290K
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310K
34%
Kalshi 34%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310K
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330K
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330K
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 350K
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 350K
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 370K
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 370K
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 220K
  • Above 240K
  • Above 260K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 36 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 220K leads at 94%. Next is Above 240K at 87%. $1K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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