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Best ask
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What the markets expect
Above 126K 97%
Next is Above 133K at 97%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 126K97%97%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 126K97%Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 126K
97%
97%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 126K
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 133K97%97%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 133K97%Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 133K
97%
97%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 133K
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 139K97%97%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 139K97%Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 139K
97%
97%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 139K
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 145K97%97%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 145K97%Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 145K
97%
97%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 145K
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, just now
Above 166K96.5%96.5%93¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 166K96.5%Kalshi 96.5%polled, just now
Above 166K
96.5%
96.5%
93¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 166K
96.5%
Kalshi 96.5%polled, just now
Above 152K96%96%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 152K96%Kalshi 96%polled, just now
Above 152K
96%
96%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 152K
96%
Kalshi 96%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 152K
- Last price
- 96%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $2K
Above 159K94%94%94¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 159K94%Kalshi 94%polled, just now
Above 159K
94%
94%
94¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 159K
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 159K
- Last price
- 94%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- Volume
- $32
Above 173K92%92%92¢ bid, — askpolled, just nowNo askAbove 173K92%Kalshi 92%polled, just now
Above 173K
92%
92%
92¢ bid, — ask
polled, just now
No ask
Above 173K
92%
Kalshi 92%polled, just now
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 173K
- Last price
- 92%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 92¢
- Volume
- $3K
Above 210K78%78%72¢ bid, 84¢ askpolled, just now84¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $119 (1.19x)Above 210K78%Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Above 210K
78%
78%
72¢ bid, 84¢ ask
polled, just now
84¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Above 210K
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, just nowBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 210K
- Last price
- 78%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 84¢
- Sell Yes
- 72¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $119 (1.19x)
Above 235K52%52%46¢ bid, 58¢ askpolled, just now58¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $172 (1.72x)Above 235K52%Kalshi 52%polled, just nowBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Above 235K
52%
52%
46¢ bid, 58¢ ask
polled, just now
58¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Above 235K
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, just nowBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 235K
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 58¢
- Sell Yes
- 46¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $172 (1.72x)
Show 5 more outcomesHide 5 outcomes
Above 260K27%27%21¢ bid, 33¢ askpolled, just now33¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $303 (3.03x)Above 260K27%Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Above 260K
27%
27%
21¢ bid, 33¢ ask
polled, just now
33¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Above 260K
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, just nowBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 260K
- Last price
- 27%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 33¢
- Sell Yes
- 21¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $303 (3.03x)
Above 280K17%17%8¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, just now20¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $500 (5.00x)Above 280K17%Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 280K
17%
17%
8¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, just now
20¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Above 280K
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, just nowBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 280K
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $82
Above 300K6.5%6.5%1¢ bid, 12¢ askpolled, just now12¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $833 (8.33x)Above 300K6.5%Kalshi 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Above 300K
6.5%
6.5%
1¢ bid, 12¢ ask
polled, just now
12¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Above 300K
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 300K
- Last price
- 6.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 12¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $833 (8.33x)
Above 320K4.5%4.5%1¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, just now8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)Above 320K4.5%Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 320K
4.5%
4.5%
1¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, just now
8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 320K
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 320K
- Last price
- 4.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
Above 340K3.5%3.5%1¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, just now6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)Above 340K3.5%Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 340K
3.5%
3.5%
1¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, just now
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Above 340K
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, just nowBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 340K
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 126K
- Above 133K
- Above 139K
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "California 42 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 126K leads at 97%. Next is Above 133K at 97%. $5K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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