The Prediction Markets

California 48 House General Election: voter turnout

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 170K 93.5%

Next is Above 178K at 89%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 170K
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170K
Last price
93.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 178K
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 178K
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 186K
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 186K
Last price
78%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 195K
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 82¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 195K
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$300
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 205K
65%
Kalshi 65%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 205K
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200K
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200K
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Volume
$900
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 215K
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 215K
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$145
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220K
55%
Kalshi 55%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220K
Last price
55%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$34
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210K
53%
Kalshi 53%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 65¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $154 (1.54x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210K
Last price
53%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
65¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$154 (1.54x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 225K
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 225K
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 5 more outcomes
Above 230K
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 230K
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 235K
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 235K
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 240K
27%
Kalshi 27%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 240K
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 255K
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 255K
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 276K
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 20s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 276K
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$63
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 170K
  • Above 178K
  • Above 186K

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California 48 House General Election: voter turnout". Above 170K leads at 93.5%. Next is Above 178K at 89%. $3K has traded across 15 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets