The Prediction Markets

California Governor Election Winner

Closes
Nov 4, 2026, in 12 days
Traded
$65.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Xavier Becerra 94.8%

Next is Steve Hilton at 3.3%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Xavier Becerra 94.8%Steve Hilton 3.3%Tom Steyer 0.2%Alex Padilla 0.1%Antonio Villaraigosa 0.1%15 others 1.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Xavier Becerra
94.8%
Polymarket 96.7%(95.6% fair)polled, just nowKalshi 97%(47.9% fair)polled, just nowKalshi 96.4%(47.9% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 96.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Xavier Becerra
Last price
96.7%
Fair, margin removed
95.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96.9¢
Sell Yes
96.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$2.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Becerra
Last price
97%
Fair, margin removed
47.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$6.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Xavier Becerra
Last price
96.4%
Fair, margin removed
47.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
96.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$539K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 96.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 96.9¢.

Steve Hilton
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, just nowKalshi 3.4%(1.7% fair)polled, just nowKalshi 3.6%(1.7% fair)polled, just nowBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Steve Hilton
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$3.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Hilton
Last price
3.4%
Fair, margin removed
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$14.3M
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Hilton
Last price
3.6%
Fair, margin removed
1.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.4¢.

Tom Steyer
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tom Steyer
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$4.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Padilla
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alex Padilla
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Antonio Villaraigosa
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Antonio Villaraigosa
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Betty Yee
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Betty Yee
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.7M
Trade this on Polymarket
Butch Ware
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Butch Ware
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Chad Bianco
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chad Bianco
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Daniel Mercuri
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Daniel Mercuri
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Elaine Culotti
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elaine Culotti
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.3M
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
Eleni Kounalakis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eleni Kounalakis
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Eric Swalwell
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Eric Swalwell
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kamala Harris
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Katie Porter
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Katie Porter
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Kyle Langford
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kyle Langford
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Leo Zacky
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Leo Zacky
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Matt Mahan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Mahan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Younger
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Younger
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicole Shanahan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicole Shanahan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Rick Caruso
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rick Caruso
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.8M
Trade this on Polymarket
Stephen Cloobeck
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stephen Cloobeck
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Toni Atkins
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Toni Atkins
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Polymarket
Tony Thurmond
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, just nowBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tony Thurmond
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1.4M
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the California Secretary of State, California Secretary of State
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Xavier Becerra
  • Steve Hilton
  • Tom Steyer

Live prices for Xavier Becerra

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California Governor Election Winner". Xavier Becerra leads at 94.8%. Next is Steve Hilton at 3.3%. $65.4M has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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