Combined depth · both venues
Loading both order books…
What the markets expect
Xavier Becerra 95%
Next is Steve Hilton at 3.3%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Xavier BecerraArb95%96.6%95.8% fair96.4¢ bid, 96.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago97.3%47.6% fair96.6¢ bid, 97.3¢ askpolled, 1 min ago96.7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Xavier BecerraArb95%Polymarket 96.6%(95.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96.8%(47.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 97.3%(47.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Xavier BecerraArb
95%
96.6%
95.8% fair
96.4¢ bid, 96.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
97.3%
47.6% fair
96.6¢ bid, 97.3¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
96.7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Xavier BecerraArb
95%
Polymarket 96.6%(95.8% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 96.8%(47.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 97.3%(47.6% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 96.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Xavier Becerra
- Last price
- 96.6%
- Fair, margin removed
- 95.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 96.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $2.3M
Kalshi
- Contract
- Xavier Becerra
- Last price
- 96.8%
- Fair, margin removed
- 47.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 96.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 96.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $6.7M
Kalshi
- Contract
- Xavier Becerra
- Last price
- 97.3%
- Fair, margin removed
- 47.6%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 97.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 96.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $539K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 96.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 96.8¢ nets 10 bps before fees.
Steve Hilton3.3%3.2%2.8¢ bid, 3.5¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.7%1.7% fair2.9¢ bid, 3.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3.4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)Steve Hilton3.3%Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3.4%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3.7%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Steve Hilton
3.3%
3.2%
2.8¢ bid, 3.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.7%
1.7% fair
2.9¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3.4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Steve Hilton
3.3%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3.4%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3.7%(1.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Steve Hilton
- Last price
- 3.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,857 (28.6x)
- Volume
- $3.5M
Kalshi
- Contract
- Steve Hilton
- Last price
- 3.4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,941 (29.4x)
- Volume
- $14.4M
Kalshi
- Contract
- Steve Hilton
- Last price
- 3.7%
- Fair, margin removed
- 1.7%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $1.8M
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.5¢.
Alex Padilla0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Alex Padilla0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Alex Padilla
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Alex Padilla
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Alex Padilla
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2.0M
Antonio Villaraigosa0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Antonio Villaraigosa0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Antonio Villaraigosa
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Antonio Villaraigosa
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Antonio Villaraigosa
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.6M
Betty Yee0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Betty Yee0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Betty Yee
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Betty Yee
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Betty Yee
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.7M
Butch Ware0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Butch Ware0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Butch Ware
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Butch Ware
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Butch Ware
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.3M
Chad Bianco0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Chad Bianco0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Chad Bianco
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Chad Bianco
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Chad Bianco
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $2.0M
Daniel Mercuri0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Daniel Mercuri0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Daniel Mercuri
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Daniel Mercuri
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Daniel Mercuri
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.4M
Elaine Culotti0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Elaine Culotti0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Elaine Culotti
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Elaine Culotti
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Elaine Culotti
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.3M
Eleni Kounalakis0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Eleni Kounalakis0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Eleni Kounalakis
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Eleni Kounalakis
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eleni Kounalakis
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.4M
Show 13 more outcomesHide 13 outcomes
Eric Swalwell0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Eric Swalwell0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Eric Swalwell
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Eric Swalwell
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Eric Swalwell
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.5M
Kamala Harris0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Kamala Harris0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kamala Harris
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kamala Harris
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kamala Harris
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.6M
Katie Porter0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Katie Porter0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Katie Porter
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Katie Porter
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Katie Porter
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.8M
Kyle Langford0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Kyle Langford0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kyle Langford
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Kyle Langford
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Kyle Langford
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.8M
Leo Zacky0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Leo Zacky0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Leo Zacky
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Leo Zacky
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Leo Zacky
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.1M
Matt Mahan0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Matt Mahan0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Matt Mahan
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Matt Mahan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Matt Mahan
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.4M
Michael Younger0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Michael Younger0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Michael Younger
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Michael Younger
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Michael Younger
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.5M
Nicole Shanahan0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Nicole Shanahan0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Nicole Shanahan
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Nicole Shanahan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Nicole Shanahan
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.8M
Rick Caruso0.1%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Rick Caruso0.1%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Rick Caruso
0.1%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Rick Caruso
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Rick Caruso
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.8M
Stephen Cloobeck0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Stephen Cloobeck0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Stephen Cloobeck
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Stephen Cloobeck
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Stephen Cloobeck
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.6M
Tom Steyer0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Tom Steyer0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tom Steyer
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tom Steyer
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tom Steyer
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $4.9M
Toni Atkins0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Toni Atkins0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Toni Atkins
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Toni Atkins
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Toni Atkins
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.6M
Tony Thurmond0%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Tony Thurmond0%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tony Thurmond
0%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Tony Thurmond
0%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Tony Thurmond
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1.4M
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Xavier Becerra on Polymarket at 96.7¢, sell on Kalshi at 96.8¢ (10 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the California Secretary of State, California Secretary of State
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Nov 4, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 3, 2027, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Xavier Becerra
- Steve Hilton
- Alex Padilla
Live prices for Xavier Becerra
What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Open on Polymarket ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…Kalshi
Open on Kalshi ↗Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—
Waiting for the first live quote…
Depth · top 8 levels
Loading snapshot…Recent trades
Loading…What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "California Governor winner? (Party)". Xavier Becerra leads at 95%. Next is Steve Hilton at 3.3%. $65.6M has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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