The Prediction Markets

California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$24K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
3 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

No, ≥1% 70%

Next is No, ≥1% at 45%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
No, ≥1%
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
No, ≥1%
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
No, ≥1%
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
No, ≥4%
Last price
45%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
No, ≥1%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
No, ≥7%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
No, ≥1%
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Kalshi
Contract
No, ≥13%
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
No, ≥1%
24%
Kalshi 24%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
No, ≥10%
Last price
24%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
No, ≥1%
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
No, ≥16%
Last price
18%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
No, ≥1%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
No, ≥19%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$203
Trade this on Kalshi
No, ≥1%
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
No, ≥22%
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • No, ≥1%
  • No, ≥1%
  • No, ≥1%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California Proposition 40 election margin of victory? (No)". No, ≥1% leads at 70%. Next is No, ≥1% at 45%. $24K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets