Top of book
ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Yes 30%
Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Best Yes price
Yes30%30%13¢ bid, 47¢ askpolled, 5 h ago47¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $213 (2.13x)Yes30%Polymarket 30%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Yes
30%
30%
13¢ bid, 47¢ ask
polled, 5 h ago
47¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Yes
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Yes
- Last price
- 30%
- As of
- Polled 5 h ago
- Buy Yes
- 47¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $213 (2.13x)
- Volume
- $1K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: ncei.noaa.gov
How the odds have moved
The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Yes
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
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Cover Yes and No across venues
Loading every outcome’s book…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "California winter 2026-27 wetter or drier?". Yes leads at 30%. $1K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 16, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Drier" if California's statewide total precipitation for December 2026 through February 2027, according to NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), is less than 11.99 inches. If the total is 11.99 inches or more, this market will resolve to "Wetter". 11.99 inches is NCEI's published 1991-2020 average for this period. The threshold is fixed at 11.99 inches, and any change to NCEI's published average will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be NOAA NCEI Climate at a Glance, specifically the February 2027 value of the California statewide precipitation series with the timescale set to "3-Month" and the month set to "February", at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/statewide/time-series/4/pcp/3/2. The figure will be the Precipitation figure under California Precipitation found by either hovering over the graph or in the table on the link. The resolution source reports precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 11.54), which is the precision used to resolve this market. This market will resolve on the first value NCEI publishes for December 2026 through February 2027. Any later revision to that value will not be considered. If NCEI has not published this value on Climate at a Glance by May 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will instead resolve using the most recent NCEI statewide precipitation file (climdiv-pcpnst) at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/monitoring-content/data/us/climdiv/monthly/current/. In that file, add the December value from the row beginning “0040012026” to the January and February values from the row beginning “0040012027” (004 is the California state code, 01 is the precipitation element code, and 2026/2027 is the year; December 2026 is the last monthly column in the 0040012026 row, while January and February 2027 are the first two monthly columns in the 0040012027 row), and compare the total against 11.99 inches to 2 decimal places.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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