The Prediction Markets

California's 13th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Gray, 3+ pts 92.2%

Next is Gray, 6+ pts at 88.6%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Gray, 3+ pts
92.2%
Kalshi 92.2%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 95.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 3+ pts
Last price
92.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.3¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gray, 6+ pts
88.6%
Kalshi 88.6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 94.1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 6+ pts
Last price
88.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94.1¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gray, 9+ pts
78.5%
Kalshi 78.5%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 9+ pts
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
73¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gray, 12+ pts
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 71¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 12+ pts
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Gray, 15+ pts
57%
Kalshi 57%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 15+ pts
Last price
57%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Gray, 18+ pts
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 18+ pts
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Gray, 21+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 21+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$433
Trade this on Kalshi
Gray, 24+ pts
12.6%
Kalshi 12.6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 24+ pts
Last price
12.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
7.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Gray, 27+ pts
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 36s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Gray, 27+ pts
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Gray, 3+ pts
  • Gray, 6+ pts
  • Gray, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California's 13th District margin of victory". Gray, 3+ pts leads at 92.2%. Next is Gray, 6+ pts at 88.6%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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