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What the markets expect
Fong, 12+ pts 95.9%
Next is Fong, 15+ pts at 94.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Fong, 12+ pts95.9%95.9%92.8¢ bid, 98.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago98.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Fong, 12+ pts95.9%Kalshi 95.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 12+ pts
95.9%
95.9%
92.8¢ bid, 98.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
98.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 12+ pts
95.9%
Kalshi 95.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 12+ pts
- Last price
- 95.9%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 92.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 15+ pts94.9%94.9%90.9¢ bid, 98.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago98.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Fong, 15+ pts94.9%Kalshi 94.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 15+ pts
94.9%
94.9%
90.9¢ bid, 98.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
98.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 15+ pts
94.9%
Kalshi 94.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 15+ pts
- Last price
- 94.9%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 90.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 18+ pts93.5%93.5%88¢ bid, 98.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago98.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $101 (1.01x)Fong, 18+ pts93.5%Kalshi 93.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 18+ pts
93.5%
93.5%
88¢ bid, 98.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
98.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 18+ pts
93.5%
Kalshi 93.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 18+ pts
- Last price
- 93.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 98.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 88¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $101 (1.01x)
Fong, 21+ pts90.1%90.1%81¢ bid, 92.8¢ askpolled, 2 min ago92.8¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $108 (1.08x)Fong, 21+ pts90.1%Kalshi 90.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 92.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Fong, 21+ pts
90.1%
90.1%
81¢ bid, 92.8¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
92.8¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Fong, 21+ pts
90.1%
Kalshi 90.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 92.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 21+ pts
- Last price
- 90.1%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 92.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 81¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $108 (1.08x)
- Volume
- $35
Fong, 24+ pts77%77%71¢ bid, 83¢ askpolled, 2 min ago83¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $120 (1.20x)Fong, 24+ pts77%Kalshi 77%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Fong, 24+ pts
77%
77%
71¢ bid, 83¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
83¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Fong, 24+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 24+ pts
- Last price
- 77%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 83¢
- Sell Yes
- 71¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $120 (1.20x)
Fong, 27+ pts61%61%57¢ bid, 69¢ askpolled, 2 min ago69¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $145 (1.45x)Fong, 27+ pts61%Kalshi 61%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Fong, 27+ pts
61%
61%
57¢ bid, 69¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
69¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Fong, 27+ pts
61%
Kalshi 61%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 27+ pts
- Last price
- 61%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 69¢
- Sell Yes
- 57¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $145 (1.45x)
- Volume
- $200
Fong, 30+ pts52%52%41¢ bid, 53¢ askpolled, 2 min ago53¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $189 (1.89x)Fong, 30+ pts52%Kalshi 52%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Fong, 30+ pts
52%
52%
41¢ bid, 53¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
53¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Fong, 30+ pts
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 30+ pts
- Last price
- 52%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 53¢
- Sell Yes
- 41¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $189 (1.89x)
- Volume
- $800
Fong, 33+ pts38%38%26¢ bid, 38¢ askpolled, 2 min ago38¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $263 (2.63x)Fong, 33+ pts38%Kalshi 38%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Fong, 33+ pts
38%
38%
26¢ bid, 38¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
38¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Fong, 33+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 33+ pts
- Last price
- 38%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 38¢
- Sell Yes
- 26¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $263 (2.63x)
- Volume
- $200
Fong, 36+ pts19%19%13¢ bid, 25¢ askpolled, 2 min ago25¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $400 (4.00x)Fong, 36+ pts19%Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Fong, 36+ pts
19%
19%
13¢ bid, 25¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
25¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Fong, 36+ pts
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 36+ pts
- Last price
- 19%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 25¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $400 (4.00x)
Fong, 39+ pts9.3%9.3%3.5¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 2 min ago15¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $667 (6.67x)Fong, 39+ pts9.3%Kalshi 9.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Fong, 39+ pts
9.3%
9.3%
3.5¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
15¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Fong, 39+ pts
9.3%
Kalshi 9.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 39+ pts
- Last price
- 9.3%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 3.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
Fong, 42+ pts5.5%5.5%1¢ bid, 9.9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago9.9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)Fong, 42+ pts5.5%Kalshi 5.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Fong, 42+ pts
5.5%
5.5%
1¢ bid, 9.9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
9.9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Fong, 42+ pts
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,010 (10.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Fong, 42+ pts
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,010 (10.1x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Fong, 12+ pts
- Fong, 15+ pts
- Fong, 18+ pts
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "California's 20th District margin of victory". Fong, 12+ pts leads at 95.9%. Next is Fong, 15+ pts at 94.9%. $1K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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