The Prediction Markets

California's 21st District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$4K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Costa, 2+ pts 93.3%

Next is Costa, 5+ pts at 91.8%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Costa, 2+ pts
93.3%
Kalshi 93.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 2+ pts
Last price
93.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.7¢
Sell Yes
91.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 5+ pts
91.8%
Kalshi 91.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 94.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 5+ pts
Last price
91.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94.6¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 8+ pts
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 93.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $107 (1.07x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 8+ pts
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
93.6¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$107 (1.07x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 11+ pts
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 11+ pts
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
76¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$308
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 14+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 14+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 17+ pts
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 17+ pts
Last price
40%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 20+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 20+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$142
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 23+ pts
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 23+ pts
Last price
22%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 26+ pts
7.7%
Kalshi 7.7%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 26+ pts
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 29+ pts
5.1%
Kalshi 5.1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,087 (10.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 29+ pts
Last price
5.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,087 (10.9x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Costa, 32+ pts
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 6.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,449 (14.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Costa, 32+ pts
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Costa, 2+ pts
  • Costa, 5+ pts
  • Costa, 8+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California's 21st District margin of victory". Costa, 2+ pts leads at 93.3%. Next is Costa, 5+ pts at 91.8%. $4K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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