The Prediction Markets

California's 24th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Carbajal, 17+ pts 85.2%

Next is Carbajal, 20+ pts at 79.5%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Carbajal, 17+ pts
85.2%
Kalshi 85.2%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 17+ pts
Last price
85.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.4¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 20+ pts
79.5%
Kalshi 79.5%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 20+ pts
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
60¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 23+ pts
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 23+ pts
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$415
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 26+ pts
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 26+ pts
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 41+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 41+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 44+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 44+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 47+ pts
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 47+ pts
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 29+ pts
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 29+ pts
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$400
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 32+ pts
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 32+ pts
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 35+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 35+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$401
Trade this on Kalshi
Carbajal, 38+ pts
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 37s agoBest Yes 98.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carbajal, 38+ pts
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98.9¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: official election authority responsible for certifying results in

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Carbajal, 17+ pts
  • Carbajal, 20+ pts
  • Carbajal, 23+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California's 24th District margin of victory". Carbajal, 17+ pts leads at 85.2%. Next is Carbajal, 20+ pts at 79.5%. $2K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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