The Prediction Markets

California's 48th District margin of victory

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
10 min ago
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What the markets expect

Wilpert, 6+ pts 95.3%

Next is Wilpert, 12+ pts at 95.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 10 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Wilpert, 6+ pts
95.3%
Kalshi 95.3%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 95.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilpert, 6+ pts
Last price
95.3%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
95.4¢
Sell Yes
95.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilpert, 12+ pts
95.2%
Kalshi 95.2%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 95.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilpert, 12+ pts
Last price
95.2%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
95.2¢
Sell Yes
93.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilpert, 9+ pts
94.9%
Kalshi 94.9%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 94.9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilpert, 9+ pts
Last price
94.9%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
94.9¢
Sell Yes
94.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$641
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilpert, 3+ pts
92.4%
Kalshi 92.4%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 98.3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilpert, 3+ pts
Last price
92.4%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
98.3¢
Sell Yes
92.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilpert, 15+ pts
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 91.4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilpert, 15+ pts
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
91.4¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$241
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilpert, 18+ pts
38%
Kalshi 38%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilpert, 18+ pts
Last price
38%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Kalshi
Wilpert, 21+ pts
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 10 min agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wilpert, 21+ pts
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 10 min ago
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
8.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: California Secretary of State

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Wilpert, 6+ pts
  • Wilpert, 12+ pts
  • Wilpert, 9+ pts

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

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Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "California's 48th District margin of victory". Wilpert, 6+ pts leads at 95.3%. Next is Wilpert, 12+ pts at 95.2%. $2K has traded across 7 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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